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A Theoretical Treatment of Foreign Fighters and Terrorism

Author

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  • Subhayu Bandyopadhyay
  • Todd Sandler

Abstract

The paper offers a game-theoretical model that includes three participants – the terrorist organization, its foreign fighters, and the adversarial host government. In stage 1, the terrorist group induces foreign fighters to emigrate through wage incentives, while the host government deters these fighters through proactive border security. Foreign fighters decide whether to emigrate from their source country (extensive margin) in stage 2, after which these fighters determine their level of attacks (intensive margin) in stage 3. Comparative statics to the Nash equilibrium are tied to changes in the employment or opportunity cost in the source country, as well as to changes in radicalization. Our basic model provides a theoretical foundation to recent empirical results. An extension involves a four-stage game with the host government assuming a leadership role prior to the terrorist group choosing its wage incentive.

Suggested Citation

  • Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler, 2024. "A Theoretical Treatment of Foreign Fighters and Terrorism," Working Papers 2024-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98197
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2024.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dongfang Hou & Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2020. "Introducing Extended Data on Terrorist Groups (EDTG), 1970 to 2016," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(1), pages 199-225, January.
    2. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(3), pages 307-332, June.
    3. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2019. "What We Have Learned about Terrorism since 9/11," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 275-328, June.
    4. Laurence Iannaccone & Eli Berman, 2006. "Religious extremism: The good, the bad, and the deadly," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 109-129, July.
    5. Anne Brockmeyer & Quy-Toan Do & Clément Joubert & Kartika Bhatia & Mohamed Abdel Jelil, 2023. "Transnational Terrorist Recruitment: Evidence from Daesh Personnel Records," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1092-1109, September.
    6. Macartan Humphreys & Jeremy M. Weinstein, 2008. "Who Fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(2), pages 436-455, April.
    7. B. Peter Rosendorff & Todd Sandler, 2004. "Too Much of a Good Thing?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(5), pages 657-671, October.
    8. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1998. "Transnational Terrorism in the Post-Cold War Era," ISU General Staff Papers 199804010800001308, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2014. "An empirical analysis of alternative ways that terrorist groups end," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 25-44, July.
    10. Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu & Sandler, Todd, 2023. "Voluntary participation in a terror group and counterterrorism policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 500-513.
    11. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? A Time-Series Investigation," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1823, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign fighters; extensive and intensive margins; three-stage game; selective incentives; proactive border security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games

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