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Predicting inflation with the term structure spread

Author

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  • Sharon Kozicki

Abstract

It is tempting to interpret empirical evidence in a number of recent studies as suggesting that term structure spreads help predict future inflation over moderate horizons of 3 to 5 years. This paper argues that common measures of the predictive power of the term structure spread for future inflation are misleading. In particular, R2s for estimated inflation-change equations can drastically overstate the predictive power of spreads. The paper explains why the overstatement is likely to be particularly large in countries whose monetary authorities have strong reputations for credibly targeting a stable inflation rate. Results from an empirical analysis of data from eleven industrialized countries suggest that the level of the short-term real rate may be more useful for predicting inflation than the term structure spread, possibly because changes in short-term real rates provide clearer measures of changes in the stance of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharon Kozicki, 1998. "Predicting inflation with the term structure spread," Research Working Paper 98-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:98-02
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    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/5284/pdf-rwp98-02.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kursat Kunter & Norbert Janssen, 2002. "Credibility Of Monetary Regimes : Is Inflation Targeting Different?," Discussion Papers 0201, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Harald Grech, 2004. "What Do German Short-Term Interest Rates Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Working Papers 94, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Viktor Kotlan, 2002. "Monetary Policy and the Term Spread in a Macro Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2002/01, Czech National Bank.
    5. Viktor Kotlán, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Future Inflation," Macroeconomics 0004014, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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