IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/wp-06-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How did the 2003 dividend tax cut affect stock prices?

Author

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that the 2003 dividend tax cut boosted U.S. stock prices and thus lowered the cost of equity. Using an event- study methodology, we attempt to identify an aggregate stock market effect by comparing the behavior of U.S. common stock prices to that of European stocks and real estate investment trusts. We also examine the relative cross-sectional response of prices on high-dividend versus low-dividend paying stocks. We do not find any imprint of the dividend tax cut news on the value of the aggregate U.S. stock market. On the other hand, high-dividend stocks outperformed low-dividend stocks by a few percentage points over the event windows, suggesting that the tax cut did induce asset reallocation within equity portfolios. Finally, the positive abnormal returns on non-dividend paying U.S. stocks in 2003 do not appear to be tied to tax-cut news.

Suggested Citation

  • Gene Amromin & Paul Harrison & Steven A. Sharpe, 2006. "How did the 2003 dividend tax cut affect stock prices?," Working Paper Series WP-06-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-06-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/working_papers/2006/wp2006_17.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1974. "Special Information and Insider Trading," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(3), pages 410-428, July.
    2. John R. Graham & Roni Michaely & Michael R. Roberts, 2003. "Do Price Discreteness and Transactions Costs Affect Stock Returns? Comparing Ex‐Dividend Pricing before and after Decimalization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2611-2636, December.
    3. Jeffrey R. Brown & Nellie Liang & Scott Weisbenner, 2007. "Executive Financial Incentives and Payout Policy: Firm Responses to the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1935-1965, August.
    4. Auerbach, Alan J., 2002. "Taxation and corporate financial policy," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 19, pages 1251-1292, Elsevier.
    5. Auerbach, Alan J. & Hassett, Kevin A., 2003. "On the marginal source of investment funds," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 205-232, January.
    6. Mandelker, Gershon, 1974. "Risk and return: The case of merging firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 303-335, December.
    7. Shing‐yang Hu & Yun‐Ian Tseng, 2006. "Who Wants to Trade Around Ex‐Dividend Days?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 95-119, December.
    8. Shing-yang Hu & Yun-Ian Tseng, 2006. "Who Wants to Trade Around Ex-Dividend Days?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 35(4), Winter.
    9. Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin A. Hassett, 2006. "Dividend Taxes and Firm Valuation: New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 119-123, May.
    10. George J. Papaioannou & Craig M. Savarese, 1994. "Corporate Dividend Policy Response to the Tax Reform Act of 1986," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 23(1), Spring.
    11. A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), 2002. "Handbook of Public Economics," Handbook of Public Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    12. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
    13. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2005. "Dividend Taxes and Corporate Behavior: Evidence from the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 791-833.
    14. James Poterba, 2004. "Taxation and Corporate Payout Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 171-175, May.
    15. Chan, Konan & Ikenberry, David & Lee, Inmoo, 2004. "Economic Sources of Gain in Stock Repurchases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 461-479, September.
    16. Clemens Sialm, 2005. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), 2002. "Handbook of Public Economics," Handbook of Public Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    18. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    19. Schipper, K & Thompson, R, 1983. "The Impact Of Merger-Related Regulations On The Shareholders Of Acquiring Firms," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 184-221.
    20. Auerbach,Alan J. & Hines, Jr.,James R. & Slemrod,Joel (ed.), 2007. "Taxing Corporate Income in the 21st Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521870221, November.
    21. Dhaliwal, Dan & Krull, Linda & Li, Oliver Zhen, 2007. "Did the 2003 Tax Act reduce the cost of equity capital?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 121-150, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marko Koethenbuerger & Michael E Stimmelmayr, 2022. "The Efficiency Costs of Dividend Taxation with Managerial Firms," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 1123-1149.
    2. Hanlon, Michelle & Heitzman, Shane, 2010. "A review of tax research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 127-178, December.
    3. DeYoung, Robert & Jang, Karen Y., 2023. "Testing dividend tax theory: Firm and industry heterogeneity," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Annette Alstadsaeter & Wojciech Kopczuk & Kjetil Telle, 2014. "Are Closely Held Firms Tax Shelters?," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    5. Ronald W. Masulis & Peter K. Pham & Jason Zein, 2020. "Family Business Group Expansion Through IPOs: The Role of Internal Capital Markets in Financing Growth While Preserving Control," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(11), pages 5191-5215, November.
    6. Christian Keuschnigg & Martin Dietz, 2007. "A growth oriented dual income tax," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 14(2), pages 191-221, April.
    7. Conesa, Juan C. & Domínguez, Begoña, 2013. "Intangible investment and Ramsey capital taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 983-995.
    8. Alstadsæter, Annette & Jacob, Martin & Michaely, Roni, 2017. "Do dividend taxes affect corporate investment?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 74-83.
    9. Matteo F. Ghilardi & Roy Zilberman, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Dividend Taxation with Investment Credit Limits," Working Papers 359000594, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    10. Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin A. Hassett, 2005. "The 2003 Dividend Tax Cuts and the Value of the Firm: An Event Study," NBER Working Papers 11449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jacob, Martin, 2010. "Taxation, Dividends, and Share Repurchases: Taking Evidence Global," Working Paper Series, Center for Fiscal Studies 2010:10, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    12. Clemens Sialm, 2009. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1356-1383, September.
    13. Atsushi Chino & Joon Ho Kim, 2022. "Does dividend policy affect sales growth in product markets? Evidence from the 2003 dividend tax cut," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 539-571, June.
    14. François Gourio & Jianjun Miao, 2010. "Firm Heterogeneity and the Long-Run Effects of Dividend Tax Reform," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 131-168, January.
    15. Doina Radulescu & Michael Stimmelmayr & Doina Maria Radulescu, 2005. "Implementing a Dual Income Tax in Germany: Effects on Investment and Welfare," ifo Working Paper Series 20, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    16. Kleven, Henrik & Best, Michael & Spinnewijn, Johannes & Waseem, Mazhar & Brockmeyer, Anne, 2013. "Production vs Revenue Efficiency With Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence From Pakistan," CEPR Discussion Papers 9717, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Desai, Mihir A. & Jin, Li, 2011. "Institutional tax clienteles and payout policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 68-84, April.
    18. Annette Alstadsæter & Erik Fjærli, 2009. "Neutral taxation of shareholder income? Corporate responses to an announced dividend tax," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(4), pages 571-604, August.
    19. Doan, Minh Phuong & Sercu, Piet, 2021. "Modelling multiperiod patterns in stock-market reactions to events, with an application to serial acquisitions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. William Gbohoui, 2019. "Do Temporary Business Tax Cuts Matter? A General Equilibrium Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2019/029, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taxation; Stock - Prices;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-06-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.