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Testing for adverse selection and moral hazard in consumer loan markets

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Author Info
Wendy Edelberg
Abstract

This paper explores the significance of unobservable default risk in mortgage and automobile loan markets. I develop and estimate a two-period model that allows for heterogeneous forms of simultaneous adverse selection and moral hazard. Controlling for income levels, loan size and risk aversion, I find robust evidence of adverse selection, with borrowers self-selecting into contracts with varying interest rates and collateral requirements. For example, ex-post higher-risk borrowers pledge less collateral and pay higher interest rates. Moreover, there is strongly suggestive evidence of moral hazard such that collateral is used to induce a borrower's effort to avoid repayment problems. Thus, loan terms may have a feedback effect on behavior. Also, higher-risk borrowers are more difficult to induce into exerting effort, explaining the counter-intuitive result that higher-risk borrowers sometimes pay lower interest rates than observably lower-risk borrowers.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2004-09.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2004-09

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Keywords: Loans; Personal;

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  1. Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Bernard Salanie, 2001. "Testing for Asymmetric Information in Insurance Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 56-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Mirrlees, J A, 1999. "The Theory of Moral Hazard and Unobservable Behaviour: Part I," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(1), pages 3-21, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jones, Lawrence D, 1993. "Deficiency Judgments and the Exercise of the Default Option in Home Mortgage Loans," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 115-38, April.
  4. Bester, Helmut, 1987. "The role of collateral in credit markets with imperfect information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 887-899, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bond, Eric W, 1982. "A Direct Test of the "Lemons" Model: The Market for Used Pickup Trucks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 836-40, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Paul S. Calem & Loretta J. Mester, 1995. "Consumer behavior and the stickiness of credit card interest rates," Working Papers 95-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  7. Fay, S. & Hurst, E. & White, M.J., 1998. "The Bankruptcy Decision: Does Stigma Matter?," Papers 98-01, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  8. Akerlof, George A, 1970. "The Market for 'Lemons': Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 630-49, November.
  10. Genesove, David, 1993. "Adverse Selection in the Wholesale Used Car Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 644-65, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Yuk-Shee Chan & Anjan V. Thakor, 2004. "Collateral and Competitive Equilibria with Moral Hazard and Private Information," Finance 0411019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Altman, Daniel & Cutler, David M & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1998. "Adverse Selection and Adverse Retention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 122-26, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Chassagnon, A. & Chiappori, P.A., 1994. "Insurance Under Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection: The Case of Pure Competition," Papers 28, Laval - Laboratoire Econometrie.
  15. Igawa, Kazuhiro & Kanatas, George, 1990. "Asymmetric Information, Collateral, and Moral Hazard," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 469-490, December. [Downloadable!]
  16. Bester, Helmut, 1985. "Screening vs. Rationing in Credit Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 850-55, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2005. "Observing unobservables: identifying information asymmetries with a consumer-credit field experiment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Pedrosa, Jose & Do, Quy-Toan, 2008. "How does geographic distance affect credit market access in Niger ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4772, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. William Adams & Liran Einav & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Liquidity Constraints and Imperfect Information in Subprime Lending," NBER Working Papers 13067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Fu-Sheng Hung, 2009. "Explaining the nonlinear effects of financial development on economic growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 41-65, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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