IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedcwp/1633.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dotcom Bubble and Underpricing: Conjectures and Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Gledson de Carvalho
  • Roberto Pinheiro
  • Joelson Oliveira Sampaio

Abstract

We provide conjectures for what caused the price spiral and the high underpricing of the dotcom bubble of 1999?2000. We raise two conjectures for the price spiral. First, given the uncertainty about the growth opportunities generated by the new technologies and their spillover effects across technology industries, investors saw the inflow of a large number of high-growth firms as a sign of high growth rates for the market as a whole. Second, investors interpreted the wave of highly underpriced IPOs as an opportunity to obtain gains by investing in newly public companies. The underpricing resulted from the emergence a large cohort of firms racing for market leadership. Fundamentals pricing at the IPO was part of their strategy. We provide evidence for our conjectures. We show that returns on NASDAQ composite index are explained by the flow of high-growth (or highly underpriced) IPOs; the high underpricing can be fully explained by firms? characteristics and strategic goals. We also show that, contrary to alternatives explanations, underpricing was not associated with top underwriting, there was no deterioration of issuers? quality, and top underwriters and analysts became more selective.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Gledson de Carvalho & Roberto Pinheiro & Joelson Oliveira Sampaio, 2016. "The Dotcom Bubble and Underpricing: Conjectures and Evidence," Working Papers (Old Series) 1633, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1633
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/working-papers/2016-working-papers/wp-1633-dotcom-bubble-and-underpricing.aspx
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Ljungqvist & William J. Wilhelm, 2003. "IPO Pricing in the Dot‐com Bubble," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 723-752, April.
    2. Michelle Lowry & G. William Schwert, 2002. "IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1171-1200, June.
    3. William Schwert, G., 2002. "Stock volatility in the new millennium: how wacky is Nasdaq?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 3-26, January.
    4. Helwege, Jean & Liang, Nellie, 2004. "Initial Public Offerings in Hot and Cold Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 541-569, September.
    5. Yung, Chris & Çolak, Gönül & Wei Wang, 2008. "Cycles in the IPO market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 192-208, July.
    6. Schultz, Paul & Zaman, Mir, 2001. "Do the individuals closest to internet firms believe they are overvalued," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 347-381, March.
    7. Barry, Christopher B. & Muscarella, Chris J. & Peavy, John III & Vetsuypens, Michael R., 1990. "The role of venture capital in the creation of public companies*1: Evidence from the going-public process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 447-471, October.
    8. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    9. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 1995. "Initial public offerings: International insights," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 139-140, May.
    10. Tim Loughran & Jay Ritter, 2004. "Why Has IPO Underpricing Changed Over Time?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 33(3), Fall.
    11. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    12. Celikyurt, Ugur & Sevilir, Merih & Shivdasani, Anil, 2010. "Going public to acquire? The acquisition motive in IPOs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 345-363, June.
    13. Brennan, M. J. & Franks, J., 1997. "Underpricing, ownership and control in initial public offerings of equity securities in the UK," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 391-413, September.
    14. Megginson, William L & Weiss, Kathleen A, 1991. "Venture Capitalist Certification in Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 879-903, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giulia Baschieri & Andrea Carosi & Stefano Mengoli, 2023. "Local IPO waves, local shocks, and the going public decision," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2565-2589, July.
    2. Reber, Beat & Vencappa, Dev, 2016. "Deliberate premarket underpricing and aftermarket mispricing: New insights on IPO pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 18-33.
    3. Michael O'Connor Keefe & David Gallagher, 2014. "Does the effect of revealed private information on initial public offering (IPO) first trading day return differ by IPO market heat?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(3), pages 921-964, September.
    4. Boehme, Rodney & Çolak, Gönül, 2012. "Primary market characteristics and secondary market frictions of stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 286-327.
    5. Butler, Alexander W. & Keefe, Michael O'Connor & Kieschnick, Robert, 2014. "Robust determinants of IPO underpricing and their implications for IPO research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 367-383.
    6. L. Cassia & G. Giudici & S. Paleari & R. Redondi, 2004. "IPO underpricing in Italy," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 179-194.
    7. Grammenos, Costas Th. & Papapostolou, Nikos C., 2012. "US shipping initial public offerings: Do prospectus and market information matter?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 276-295.
    8. Reber, Beat, 2017. "Does mispricing, liquidity or third-party certification contribute to IPO downside risk?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 25-53.
    9. Banerjee, Shantanu & Güçbilmez, Ufuk & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2016. "Leaders and followers in hot IPO markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 309-334.
    10. Yung, Chris & Çolak, Gönül & Wei Wang, 2008. "Cycles in the IPO market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 192-208, July.
    11. Jeon, Jin Q. & Lee, Cheolwoo & Nasser, Tareque & Via, M. Tony, 2015. "Multiple lead underwriter IPOs and firm visibility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 128-149.
    12. Oehler, Andreas & Rummer, Marco & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 26, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
    13. Jeppsson, Hans, 2018. "Initial public offerings, subscription precommitments and venture capital participation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 650-668.
    14. Ljungqvist, Alexander, 2003. "Conflicts of Interest and Efficient Contracting in IPOs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4163, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Signori, Andrea, 2018. "Zero-revenue IPOs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 106-121.
    16. Elvira Tiziana La Rocca, 2016. "Ipo, Underpricing e Corporate governance: una meta analisi," ESPERIENZE D'IMPRESA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(1), pages 41-64.
    17. Garner, Jacqueline L. & Marshall, Beverly B., 2010. "The non-7% solution," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1664-1674, July.
    18. Silvia Rossetto, 2008. "The price of rapid exit in venture capital-backed IPOs," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 29-53, January.
    19. Hsuan-Chi Chen & Wen-Chung Guo, 2010. "Divergence of opinion and initial public offerings," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 59-79, January.
    20. Liu, Xiaoding & Ritter, Jay R., 2011. "Local underwriter oligopolies and IPO underpricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 579-601.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Internet bubble; underpricing; spinning; analyst lust; risk composition hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.