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Household Liquidity and Macroeconomic Stabilization: Evidence from Mortgage Forbearance

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Abstract

We estimate the impact of household liquidity provision on macroeconomic stabilization using the 2020 CARES Act mortgage forbearance program. We leverage intermediation frictions in forbearance induced by mortgage servicers to identify the effect of reducing short-term payments with little change in long-term debt obligations on local labor market outcomes. Following statewide business reopenings, a 1 percentage point increase in the share of mortgages in forbearance leads to a 30 basis point increase in monthly employment growth in nontradable industries. In a model incorporating geographical heterogeneity in intermediation frictions, these responses imply a household-level marginal propensity to consume out of increased liquidity that aligns with existing estimates for direct fiscal transfers. The implied debt-financed fiscal multiplier effects of forbearance are sizable but depend on the repayment terms of deferred payments and the monetary policy stance.

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  • Sean Chanwook Lee & Omeed Maghzian, 2023. "Household Liquidity and Macroeconomic Stabilization: Evidence from Mortgage Forbearance," Working Papers 23-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:97157
    DOI: 10.29412/res.wp.2023.12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. You Suk Kim & Donghoon Lee & Tess C. Scharlemann & James Vickery, 2022. "Intermediation Frictions in Debt Relief: Evidence from CARES Act Forbearance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-017, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Andreas Fuster & Aurel Hizmo & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & James Vickery & Paul S. Willen, 2021. "How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Adrien Auclert & Will S. Dobbie & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 25685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Elliot Anenberg & Tess C. Scharlemann, 2021. "The Effect of Mortgage Forbearance on House Prices During COVID-19," FEDS Notes 2021-03-19-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2020. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 144 Studies Say 'Probably Not'," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 97-122, January.
    6. Amir Kermani & Francis Wong, 2021. "Racial Disparities in Housing Returns," NBER Working Papers 29306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    8. Karen Pence, 2022. "Liquidity in the mortgage market: How does the COVID‐19 crisis compare with the global financial crisis?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(6), pages 1405-1424, November.
    9. David Laibson & Peter Maxted & Benjamin Moll, 2022. "A Simple Mapping from MPCs to MPXs," NBER Working Papers 29664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage forbearance; liquidity; debt relief; CARES Act; employment; labor market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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