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vintage human capital, demographic trends and endogenous growth

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Author Info
Raouf Boucekkine
David de la Croix
Omar Licandro

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Abstract

We study how economic growth is affected by demographics in an overlapping generations model with a realistic survival law. Individuals optimally chose the dates at which they leave school to enter the labor market and at which they retire. Endoneous growth arises thanks to the accumulation of generation-specific human capital. Favorable shifts in the survival probabilities always induce longer schooling and later retirement but have an ambiguous effect on growth. The relationship between the growth of population and per-capita growth in hump-shaped.Increases in longevity can be responsible for a switch from a no-growth regime to a sustained growth regime and for a positive relationship between fertility and growth to vanish.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2000-02.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2000-02

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Keywords: Human capital; longevity; fertility; growth; schooling;

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  1. Chari, V V & Hopenhayn, Hugo, 1991. "Vintage Human Capital, Growth, and the Diffusion of New Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1142-65, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Boucekkine, Raouf & del Rio, Fernando & Licandro, Omar, 1999. "Endogenous vs Exogenously Driven Fluctuations in Vintage Capital Models," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1999007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ram, Rati & Schultz, Theodore W, 1979. "Life Span, Health, Savings, and Productivity," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(3), pages 399-421, April.
  4. Robert W. Fogel, 1994. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 4638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis, 1997. "The problem of population and growth: A review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 205-242, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kingston, G, 1997. "Efficient Timing of Retirement," Papers 97/01, New South Wales - School of Economics.
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  7. Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen & Lee, Ronald, 2003. "Rising longevity, education, savings, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 83-101, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Ryder, Harl E. & Weil, David N., 2000. "Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1998. "Population, Technology and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1981, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mateos, X., 1998. "Longer Lives, Fertility and Accumulation," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9822, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  12. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Boucekkine, Raouf & Germain, Marc & Licandro, Omar, 1997. "Replacement Echoes in the Vintage Capital Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 333-348, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Holger Strulik, 1997. "Learning-by-doing, population pressure, and the theory of demographic transition," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 285-298. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 1999. "Malthus to Solow," Staff Report 257, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Keith Blackburn & Giam Pietro Cipriani, 1998. "Endogenous fertility, mortality and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 517-534. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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