IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fau/wpaper/wp077.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Market Prices as Indicators of Political Events Evidence from the Experimental Market on the Czech Republic Parliamentary Election in 2002

Author

Abstract

According to efficient markets theory, the stock price on a competitive market is the best estimate of the stock’s present value. This is the basic assumption for predictions using experimental markets. The first part of the paper describes the features of such an experimental market, discusses shortly its advantages in providing predictions as compared to traditional opinion polls and identifies some assumptions that can influence its efficiency and predictive accuracy. The second part of the paper is then devoted to the results of the first experimental market organized in the Czech Republic, the political stock market on the Czech parliamentary elections into the Chamber of Deputies in June 2002.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomáš Cahlík & Adam Geršl & Michal Hlaváček & Michael Berlemann, 2005. "Market Prices as Indicators of Political Events Evidence from the Experimental Market on the Czech Republic Parliamentary Election in 2002," Working Papers IES 77, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/2299
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michal Bauer, 2005. "Theory of the Firm under Uncertainty: Financing, Attitude to Risk and Output Behavior," Working Papers IES 71, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
    2. Wadim Strielkowski & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2006. "Ready to Go? EU Enlargement and Migration Potential: Lessons for the Czech Republic in the Context of Irish Migration Experience," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(1), pages 14-28.
    3. Karel Janda, 2004. "Bankruptcy Procedures with Ex Post Moral Hazard," Working Papers IES 61, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2004.
    4. František Turnovec & Jacek W. Mercik & Mariusz Mazurkiewicz, 2004. "Power Indices: Shapley-Shubik OR Penrose-Banzhaf?," Working Papers IES 48, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2004.
    5. Karel Janda, 2003. "Credit guarantees in a credit market with adverse selection," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(4), pages 331-349.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adam Geršl, 2007. "Political Economy of Public Deficit: Perspectives for Constitutional Reform," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 67-86, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Geršl, 2007. "Political Economy of Public Deficit: Perspectives for Constitutional Reform," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 67-86, March.
    2. Tomáš Cahlík & Tomáš Honzák & Jana Honzáková & Marcel Jiřina & Natálie Reichlová, 2005. "Convergence of Consumption Structure," Working Papers IES 99, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
    3. Karel Janda, 2005. "The Comparative Statics of the Effects of Credit Guarantees and Subsidies in the Competitive Lending Market," Working Papers IES 82, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
    4. Miloslav Vošvrda & Lukáš Vácha, 2007. "Heterogeneous Agents Model with the Worst Out Algorithm," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 54-66, March.
    5. Kodera J. & Vosvrda M., 2005. "Production, Capital Stock and Price Dynamics in Simple Model of Closed Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 287, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Kateřina Tsolov, 2005. "ADR/GDR Potential in Central Europe," Working Papers IES 92, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
    7. Wadim Strielkowski & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2006. "Ready to Go? EU Enlargement and Migration Potential: Lessons for the Czech Republic in the Context of Irish Migration Experience," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(1), pages 14-28.
    8. Katerina Smidkova & Ales Bulir, 2004. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth?: What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us About Acceding Economies," Macroeconomics 0408002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. FrantiÜek Turnovec, 2005. "Arithmetics of Property Rights: A Leontief-type Model of Ownership Structures," Homo Oeconomicus, Institute of SocioEconomics, vol. 23, pages 371-379.
    10. František Turnovec, 2007. "New Measure of Voting Power," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 04-14, March.
    11. Karel Janda, 2006. "Agency Theory Approach to the Contracting between Lender and Borrower [Smluvní vztah mezi věřitelem a dlužníkem z hlediska přístupu teorie zastoupení]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(3), pages 34-47.
    12. Karel Janda, 2006. "Lender and Borrower as Principal and Agent," Working Papers IES 2006/24, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2006.
    13. Ondøej Vychodil & Ondøej Knot, 2004. "What Drives the Optimal Bankruptcy Law Design?," Working Papers IES 62, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2004.
    14. Kolecek, Ludek, 2008. "Bankruptcy laws and debt renegotiation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 40-61, April.
    15. Cheng Wang & Stephen D. Williamson, 1998. "Debt Contracts with Financial Intermediation with Costly Screening," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 573-595, August.
    16. Ciaian, Pavel & Pokrivcak, Jan and Katarina Szegenyova, 2012. "Do agricultural subsidies crowd out or stimulate rural credit market institutions? The case of EU Common Agricultural Policy," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 16, November.
    17. Jan Zápal, 2007. "Judging the Sustainability of Czech Public Finances," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 15-31, March.
    18. Wadim Strielkowski & Petr Filipec & Miroslav Štefánik & Karolina Kowalska, 2013. "Outward Labour Migration in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia after the EU Enlargement in 2004," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 042-054, March.
    19. Karel JANDA, 2006. "An Analysis of the Cost of the Supporting and Guarantee Agricultural and Forestry Fund (SGAFF) in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(09-10), pages 416-434, September.
    20. František Turnovec & Jacek W. Mercik & Mariusz Mazurkiewicz, 2004. "Power Indices: Shapley-Shubik OR Penrose-Banzhaf?," Working Papers IES 48, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2004.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Experimental economics; political stock markets; predictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.