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Exchange Rate Regimes of CEE Countries on the way to the EMU: Nominal Convergence, Real Convergence and Optimum Currency Area Criteria

Author

Listed:
  • Vladimir Lavrac

    (Institute for Economic Research Ljubljana)

  • Tina Zumer

    (Bank of Slovenia)

Abstract

The paper addresses some issues which are still open in the process of inclusion of CEE countries in the EMU. First, what are the interests of both parties involved (CEE countries and the EU side) regarding the dynamics of the accession of CEE countries to the EMU, and related to this, what is its likely scenario (early or late inclusion in the EMU), taking into account the balance of powers between the two sides. Second, the paper discusses the criteria for measuring readiness of individual CEE countries for joining the EMU. The analysis is focused on the debate on nominal convergence (represented by the famous maastricht convergence criteria) versus real convergence (catching up in economic development). In short, the discussion concentrates on the question whether monetary integration is possible and desirable among countries at a different level of economic development. Finally, special attention is paid to optimum currency area criteria, not only as a theoretical background for monetary integration, but also as an additional insight into the measurement of relative suitability and readiness of individual candidate countries for joining the EMU. As an illustration, the paper attempts to measure some of the optimum currency area indicators for the case of Slovenia, and finds out that Slovenia is relatively quite suitable for joining monetary integration and relatively well prepared for joining the euro area. In particular, Slovenia is not expected to be exposed to serious asymmetric shocks, once Slovenia joins the EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Lavrac & Tina Zumer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes of CEE Countries on the way to the EMU: Nominal Convergence, Real Convergence and Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp15, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Jun 2003.
  • Handle: RePEc:ezo:ezppap:wp15
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir Lavrac, 2003. "Institutional Aspects of Dynamics of Inclusion of Accession Countries into the EMU," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp18, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Jun 2003.
    2. Mark J. Holmes & Ping Wang, 2008. "Real Convergence and the EU Accession Countries," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 7(3), pages 215-236, December.
    3. Petrevski, Goran & Gockov, Gjorgji & Makreshanska-Mladenovska, Suzana, 2016. "Determinants of real convergence in Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 74655, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Oct 2016.
    4. Aleksejs Melihovs & Igors Kasjanovs, 2011. "The Convergence Processes in Europe and Latvia," Discussion Papers 2011/01, Latvijas Banka.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Regimes for CEEC; Optimum Currency Areas; Slovenia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration

    NEP fields

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