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Adjusting the budget balance for the business cycle: the EU methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Mourre
  • Caterina Astarita
  • Savina Princen

Abstract

The cyclically-adjusted budget balance (CAB) is the backbone of the EU framework of fiscal surveillance, both in its preventive and corrective arms. The concept corresponds to the budget balance prevailing if the economy was running at potential. After correcting for the one-off and temporary measures, it is called structural budget balance and used to assess the fiscal policy stance. This paper presents the EU methodology for computing the CAB. It derives the new value of the budgetary semi-elasticities following the recent revision of individual revenue and expenditure elasticities by the OECD and shows the effect of the revised elasticities on the CAB.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Mourre & Caterina Astarita & Savina Princen, 2014. "Adjusting the budget balance for the business cycle: the EU methodology," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 536, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0536
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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