IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/15131.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Understanding the Evolution of Japan's Exports

Author

Listed:
  • THORBECKE, Willem

Abstract

This paper uses a gravity model to investigate the evolution of Japan's exports. Before the U.S. housing bubble burst in 2007, Japan's exports to the United States were $40 billion more than predicted each year, but they have moderated since then. Japan's exports to China increased markedly relative to predicted values after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Evidence from disaggregating Japan's exports into ordinary and processing trade indicates that this increase in exports to China was driven by a surge of parts and components for re-export, and that Japan's exports of goods for the Chinese domestic market remained negative outliers. Japan's exports to South Korea and Europe are also much less than predicted. If Japan entered into free trade agreements with China, South Korea, and the European Union, it would significantly increase its exports to these destinations. This would help Japanese companies to diversify their export structure and reduce their exposure to slowdowns in the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Suggested Citation

  • THORBECKE, Willem, 2015. "Understanding the Evolution of Japan's Exports," Discussion papers 15131, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:15131
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/15e131.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Yuqing Xing, 2016. "Global Value Chains and China's Exports to High-income Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 191-203, June.
    4. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    5. Guillaume Gaulier & Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal, 2011. "China's Foreign Trade in the Perspective of a More Balanced Economic Growth," Working Papers 2011-03, CEPII research center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Timini, Jacopo & Conesa, Marina, 2019. "Chinese Exports and Non-Tariff Measures: Testing for Heterogeneous Effects at the Product Level," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(2), pages 327-345.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thorbecke, Willem, 2017. "How Would a Slowdown in the People’s Republic of China Affect its Trading Partners?," ADBI Working Papers 634, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Zouheir El-Sahli, 2023. "The Partial and General Equilibrium Effects of the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 185-199, March.
    3. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    4. Agnosteva, Delina E. & Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "Intra-national trade costs: Assaying regional frictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 32-50.
    5. Martin, Will, 2020. "Making Gravity Great Again," 2020: Economic Implications of COVID-19, December 14-15, Virtual Platform 339376, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    6. Michel Beine & Pauline Bourgeon & Jean‐Charles Bricongne, 2019. "Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 117-152, January.
    7. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Álvarez, Inmaculada C. & Barbero, Javier & Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Zofío, José L., 2018. "Does Institutional Quality Matter for Trade? Institutional Conditions in a Sectoral Trade Framework," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 72-87.
    9. Fally, Thibault, 2015. "Structural gravity and fixed effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 76-85.
    10. Natale, Fabrizio & Borrello, Alessandra & Motova, Arina, 2015. "Analysis of the determinants of international seafood trade using a gravity model," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 98-106.
    11. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 376-409, February.
    12. Ohyun Kwon & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "The Extraterritorial Effects of Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9578, CESifo.
    13. William W. Olney, 2022. "Intra-African trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 25-51, February.
    14. Jacqueline Karlsson & Helena Melin & Kevin Cullinane, 2018. "The impact of potential Brexit scenarios on German car exports to the UK: an application of the gravity model," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    16. Carl Gaigné & Lota D. Tamini, 2021. "Environmental Taxation and Import Demand for Environmental Goods: Theory and Evidence from the European Union," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(2), pages 307-352, February.
    17. Rebecca Freeman & Mario Larch & Angelos Theodorakopoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Unlocking New Methods to Estimate Country-Specific Trade Costs and Trade Elasticities," CESifo Working Paper Series 9432, CESifo.
    18. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    19. Delgadillo Chavarria, Carlos Bruno, 2019. "El Efecto de la Mediterraneidad sobre el Flujo Comercial Internacional: Evidencia Empírica Internacional y para América del Sur (1990-2016) [The Effect of Landlocked Country Status on International," MPRA Paper 96294, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Sep 2019.
    20. Donald Lien & Melody Lo & David Bojanic, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of cultural institutes on trade and foreign direct investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 1520-1553, May.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:15131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.