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Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing

Author

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  • Murshed, S.M.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of trade policy, when the instrument is a voluntary export restraint (VER), on both the home (imposing) country and the foreign (targeted) country. The innovation in the paper is the analysis of trade policy when debt servicing is present in the current account of the balance of payments. This captures the contemporary experience of deficit nations like the USA vis-à-vis surplus countries like China. Trade policy (VER) in the short-run affects the current account and exchange rate, leading to the accumulation of debt stocks, which have to be repaid in the long-run in the form of debt servicing flows. This leads to a major difference between the short and long-run effects of trade policy in the form of VERs, which can be expansionary and contractionary respectively for the trade policy initiating nation.

Suggested Citation

  • Murshed, S.M., 2010. "Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19428, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:euriss:19428
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1994. "Protection for Sale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 833-850, September.
    2. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2009. "Economic Diplomacy and the Geography of International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13518.
    3. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    4. Murshed, S Mansoob, 1992. "Commercial and Monetary Policy in a North-South Macroeconomic Model: Tariffs and VERs Compared," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(59), pages 414-426, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic effects of trade policy; debt servicing; voluntary export restraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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