IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ems/euriss/18709.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Positive natural resource shocks and domestic adjustments in a semi-industrialized economy: Argentina in the 2004-2007 period

Author

Listed:
  • Serino, L.A.

Abstract

This paper evaluates the domestic adjustment to recent positive external shocks in Argentina's natural resource sectors. Although there is no single, exclusive determinant of Argentina's fast economic growth in the period 2003-2007, the paper illustrates the favourable contribution of certain economic policies to this outcome. According to counterfactual simulations performed with a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model especially designed to capture structural features of the Argentine economy, export taxes on natural resource products and Argentina's competitive exchange rate policy have counteracted Dutch disease adjustments associated the positive terms of trade shock (which may be contractionary in the medium-term if no economic policies are implemented) contributing to productive and export diversification and to bring about output growth. The analysis also shows that in a context of strong demand impulses spending the income collected with export taxes may not be beneficial for the overall competitiveness of the economy, hence counteracting one of the purposes of the tax policy. This implies, first, that subsidies to producers of wage-goods may be ineffective to control overall price increases, and second, that optimizing the contribution of public investment in infrastructure to improve the competitiveness of the economy requires special attention to the timing of public investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Serino, L.A., 2009. "Positive natural resource shocks and domestic adjustments in a semi-industrialized economy: Argentina in the 2004-2007 period," ISS Working Papers - General Series 18709, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:euriss:18709
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/18709/wp484.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Bulte, Erwin H., 2008. "The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 248-264, May.
    2. Gibson, Bill, 2005. "The transition to a globalized economy: Poverty, human capital and the informal sector in a structuralist CGE model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 60-94, October.
    3. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2008. "Commodity Prices in Argentina. What Does Move the Wind?," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
    4. José Antonio Ocampo, 2005. "A Broad View of Macroeconomic Stability," Working Papers 1, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    5. Catao, Luis & Falcetti, Elisabetta, 2002. "Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, May.
    6. Diao, Xinshen & Rattso, Jorn & Stokke, Hildegunn Ekroll, 2005. "International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand: an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 429-450, April.
    7. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    8. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma, 2002. "Accumulation, innovation and catching-up: an extended cumulative growth model," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 26(2), pages 201-216, March.
    9. Berges, Miriam & Casellas, Karina, 2002. "A demand system analysis of food for poor and non poor households. The case of Argentina," Nülan. Deposited Documents 1019, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    10. Serino, L.A., 2007. "Competitive diversification in resource abundant countries," ISS Working Papers - General Series 18753, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    11. Rob Vos, 2007. "What we do and don’t know about trade liberalization and poverty reduction," Working Papers 50, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    12. Ros, Jaime, 2001. "Política industrial, ventajas comparativas y crecimiento," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    13. Nabil Annabi & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2006. "Functional Forms and Parametrization of CGE Models," Working Papers MPIA 2006-04, PEP-MPIA.
    14. Murshed, S. Mansoob, 2004. "When Does Natural Resource Abundance Lead to a Resource Curse?," Discussion Papers 24137, International Institute for Environment and Development, Environmental Economics Programme.
    15. Diao, Xinshen & Rattso, Jorn & Stokke, Hildegunn E., 2006. "Learning by exporting and structural change: A Ramsey growth model of Thailand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 293-306, April.
    16. Berges, Miriam E. & Casellas, Karina S., 2002. "A Demand System Analysis of Food for Poor and Non Poor Households. The Case of Argentina," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24815, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Frenkel, Roberto, 2007. "La sostenibilidad de la política de esterilización monetaria," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    18. Bill Gibson & Dirk Ernst Van Seventer, 2000. "A Tale of Two Models: Comparing structuralist and neoclassical computable general equilibrium models for South Africa," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 149-171.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Murshed, Syed Mansoob & Serino, Leandro Antonio, 2011. "The pattern of specialization and economic growth: The resource curse hypothesis revisited," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 151-161, June.
    2. Arsham Reisinezhad, 2020. "The Dutch Disease Revisited: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers halshs-03012647, HAL.
    3. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2014. "Can oil-led growth and structural change go hand in hand in Ghana?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 507-523.
    4. Dauvin, Magali & Guerreiro, David, 2017. "The Paradox of Plenty: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 212-231.
    5. Zuo, Na & Zhong, Hua, 2019. "The Effect of Resource Wealth on Regional Economic Development in China," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 291114, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Arsham Reisinezhad, 2024. "The Dutch disease revisited: consistency of theory and evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(3), pages 553-603, March.
    7. Cockx, Lara & Francken, Nathalie, 2016. "Natural resources: A curse on education spending?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 394-408.
    8. Henri, Pr Atangana Ondoa, 2019. "Natural resources curse: A reality in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Ahmed, Khalid & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Dynamics between economic growth, labor, capital and natural resource abundance in Iran: An application of the combined cointegration approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 213-221.
    10. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2012. "Can oil-led growth and structural change go hand in hand in Ghana? A multi-sector intertemporal general equilibrium assessment," Kiel Working Papers 1784, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Hübler, Michael, 2011. "Technology diffusion under contraction and convergence: A CGE analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 131-142, January.
    12. Boschini, Anne & Pettersson, Jan & Roine, Jesper, 2013. "The Resource Curse and its Potential Reversal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-41.
    13. Zhu, Junpeng & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "Resource dependence, market-oriented reform, and industrial transformation: Empirical evidence from Chinese cities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Ohad Raveh, 2013. "Dutch Disease, factor mobility, and the Alberta Effect: the case of federations," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(4), pages 1317-1350, November.
    15. Batdelger, Tuvshintugs & Zagdbazar, Manlaibaatar, 2022. "Does mining improve rural livelihood?: Evidence from Mongolia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Pérez, Claudia & Claveria, Oscar, 2020. "Natural resources and human development: Evidence from mineral-dependent African countries using exploratory graphical analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Diao, Xinshen & Breisinger, Clemens, 2010. "Foreign inflows and growth challenges for African countries," IFPRI discussion papers 967, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Vaz, Paulo Henrique, 2017. "Discovery of natural resources: A class of general equilibrium models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 174-178.
    19. de Melo, Jaime, 2012. "Trade in a'green growth'development strategy : global scale issues and challenges," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6236, The World Bank.
    20. Frederick Ploeg, 2011. "Rapacious Resource Depletion, Excessive Investment and Insecure Property Rights: A Puzzle," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(1), pages 105-128, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Argentina; Dutch disease; exchange rate policy; productive diversification; terms of trade;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ems:euriss:18709. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RePub (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/issssnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.