MRICES: A New Model for Emissions Mitigation Strategy Assessment and Its Application

Integrated assessment models(IAMs) are the primary methodology for climate change policy modeling, since it connect the economic activities with the natural system which is influenced by economic system. In this paper,we present a IAM model and develop policy assessment for mitigation strategies.The IAM model named MRICES in our paper is based on dynamic system mechanism. Many global emission reduction strategies have been proposed, but few have been assessed quantitively from the view of equality, efficiency and effectiveness. Integrated assessment models (IAM) is one of the effective ways to make climate policy modeling. So in this paper we developed the MRICES (Multi-regional integrated model of climate and economy with GDP spillovers) model, which is an IAM but extends to include GDP spillover mechanism, to make assessment on several strategies for global emissions reduction, including the egalitarianism strategy, the UNDP strategy and the Copenhagen Accord. Using 1990 as a baseline for historical emissions levels, the egalitarian strategy argues that developed nations should implement urgent emissions reductions, whereas developing nations are allowed relatively higher future emissions quotas. The UNDP strategy addresses the issue of substantial changes in global temperature but acknowledges that developing countries are not able to afford more costs for mitigation measures, which is inequitable from the perspective of a country’s right to develop. We also simulated the Copenhagen Accord to determine the consequences by the year 2100 if each country continues their current emissions mitigation actions, and results indicated that the increase in global temperature will be 2.8°C by 2100; consequently, much stronger emissions reduction efforts must be implemented after 2020. Based on analysis on mitigation strategies, it is recognized that the common but differentiated responsibility principle must be insisted when making global mitigation strategy. To comply with this principle, the emission reduction baseline of developed and developing countries should be discriminated, so 1990 and 2005 can be taken as the base year for developed and developing countries respectively.