IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/112516.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the size, cost and health impacts of universal basic income: what can be done in advance of a trial?

Author

Listed:
  • Johnson, Matthew Thomas
  • Johnson, Elliott Aidan
  • Webber, Laura
  • Friebel, Rocco
  • Reed, Howard Robert
  • Lansley, Stewart
  • Wildman, John

Abstract

Opposition to Universal Basic Income (UBI) is encapsulated by Martinelli’s claim that ‘an affordable basic income would be inadequate, and an adequate basic income would be unaffordable’. In this article, we present a model of health impact that transforms that assumption. We argue that UBI can affect higher level social determinants of health down to individual determinants of health and on to improvements in public health that lead to a number of economic returns on investment. Given that no trial has been designed and deployed with that impact in mind, we present a methodological framework for assessing prospective costs and returns on investment through modelling to make the case for that trial. We begin by outlining the pathways to health in our model of change in order to present criteria for establishing the size of transfer capable of promoting health. We then consider approaches to calculating cost in a UK context to estimate budgetary burdens that need to be met by the state. Next, we suggest means of modelling the prospective impact of UBI on health before asserting means of costing that impact, using a microsimulation approach. We then outline a set of fiscal options for funding any shortfall in returns. Finally, we suggest that fiscal strategy can be designed specifically with health impact in mind by modelling the impact of reform on health and feeding that data cyclically back into tax transfer module of the microsimulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnson, Matthew Thomas & Johnson, Elliott Aidan & Webber, Laura & Friebel, Rocco & Reed, Howard Robert & Lansley, Stewart & Wildman, John, 2021. "Modelling the size, cost and health impacts of universal basic income: what can be done in advance of a trial?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112516, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:112516
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/112516/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin Milligan & Mark Stabile, 2009. "Child Benefits, Maternal Employment, and Children's Health: Evidence from Canadian Child Benefit Expansions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 128-132, May.
    2. Brent, Robert J., 2013. "A cost-benefit framework for evaluating conditional cash-transfer programs," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 159-180, August.
    3. Daniel Nettle & Elliott Johnson & Matthew Johnson & Rebecca Saxe, 2021. "Why has the COVID-19 pandemic increased support for Universal Basic Income?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magda Iga & Kiełczewska Aneta & Brandt Nicola, 2020. "The effect of child benefit on female labor supply," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Bradley Hardy & Timothy Smeeding & James P. Ziliak, 2018. "The Changing Safety Net for Low-Income Parents and Their Children: Structural or Cyclical Changes in Income Support Policy?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(1), pages 189-221, February.
    3. Milovanska-Farrington, Stefani, 2019. "The effect of family welfare support on the likelihood of having another child and parents’ labor supply," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 243-263.
    4. Lebihan, Laetitia & Mao Takongmo, Charles-Olivier, 2018. "The impact of universal child benefits on family health and behaviours," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(4), pages 415-427.
    5. Barbara Liberda & Katarzyna Sałach & Marek Pęczkowski, 2023. "The Effects of Child Benefit on Household Saving," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 447-460, June.
    6. Asakawa, Shinsuke & Sasaki, Masaru, 2022. "Can child benefit reductions increase maternal employment? Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Tammy Schirle, 2015. "The effect of universal child benefits on labour supply," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(2), pages 437-463, May.
    8. Luca Michele Cigna, 2022. "Looking for a North Star? Ideological justifications and trade unions’ preferences for a universal basic income," European Journal of Industrial Relations, , vol. 28(2), pages 129-146, June.
    9. González, Libertad, 2011. "The Effects of a Universal Child Benefit," IZA Discussion Papers 5994, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Stefani Milovanska-Farrington, 2022. "The effect of child benefits on financial difficulties and spending habits: evidence from Poland’s Family 500 + program," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 719-739, October.
    11. Wang, Julia Shu-Huah & Zhang, Jinbao & Fu, Tsung-Hsi, 2021. "The effects of universal child allowance on family expenditure in Taiwan," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    12. Cristina Borra & Ana Costa-Ramón & Libertad González Luna & Almudena Sevilla, 2021. "The causal effect of an income shock on children’s human capital," Economics Working Papers 1789, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    13. Claudia Hupkau & Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, 2022. "Work and children in Spain: challenges and opportunities for equality between men and women," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 243-268, May.
    14. Timo Hener, 2016. "Unconditional Child Benefits, Mothers’ Labor Supply, and Family Well-Being: Evidence from a Policy Reform," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(4), pages 624-649.
    15. Cécile Doustaly & Vishalakshi Roy, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of the Economic Sustainability of Cultural Work in the UK since the COVID-19 Pandemic and Examination of Universal Basic Income as a Solution for Cultural Workers," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, April.
    16. Dietrich, Stephan & Malerba, Daniele & Barrientos, Armando & Gassmann, Franziska, 2017. "Rates of return to antipoverty transfers in Uganda," MERIT Working Papers 2017-040, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    17. Samuel Berlinski & Maria Marta Ferreyra & Luca Flabbi & Juan David Martin, 2020. "Child Care Markets, Parental Labor Supply, and Child Development," CHILD Working Papers Series 73 JEL Classification:, Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic Economics (CHILD) - CCA.
    18. Lauren E. Jones & Kevin Milligan & Mark Stabile, 2019. "Child cash benefits and family expenditures: Evidence from the National Child Benefit," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1433-1463, November.
    19. Lawrence M. Berger & Jason N. Houle, 2019. "Rising Household Debt and Children’s Socioemotional Well-being Trajectories," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1273-1301, August.
    20. Lebihan, Laetitia & Mao Takongmo, Charles Olivier, 2023. "The effect of paid parental leave on breastfeeding, parental health and behavior," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    health impact; modelling; social determinants; tax; Universal Basic Income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:112516. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.