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Anchored inflation expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Carvalho
  • Stefano Eusepi
  • Emanuel Moench
  • Bruce Preston

Abstract

We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the post-war period. In our theory long-run inflation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run inflation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and monetary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explanations of low-frequency properties of inflation. The model, estimated using only inflation and short-term forecasts from professional surveys, accurately predicts observed measures of long-term inflation expectations and identifies episodes of unanchored expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2020. "Anchored inflation expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2020-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-25
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anchored expectations; inflation expectations; survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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