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Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Theory and Practice

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Author Info
Joshua Angrist

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Abstract

Instrumental Variables (IV) methods identify internally valid causal effects for individuals whose treatment status is manipulable by the instrument at hand. Inference for other populations inevitably requires some sort of homogeneity assumption. I develop a simple theoretical framework that nests all possible homogeneity assumptions for a causal treatment-effects model with a binary instrument. This framework suggests a new specification test for selection bias and simple strategies for using IV to estimate average treatment effects. These ideas are illustrated in an application using sibling-sex composition to estimate the effect of child-bearing on marital status, poverty status, and welfare receipt for the population of mothers with two or more children. The application is motivated by American welfare reform, which penalizes further childbearing by welfare mothers on the grounds that additional childbearing makes continued poverty and welfare receipt more likely. The results generally support this conjecture, though the ability to make sharp distinctions between alternative average effects is limited by the imprecision of IV estimates.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings with number 186.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nawm04:186

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Related research
Keywords: Instrumental variables; causal effects; marital stability; welfare;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Abadie A., 2002. "Bootstrap Tests for Distributional Treatment Effects in Instrumental Variable Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 284-292, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Joshua D. Angrist, 1991. "Instrumental Variables Estimation of Average Treatment Effects in Econometrics and Epidemiology," NBER Technical Working Papers 0115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Heckman, J J & Tobias, Justin & Vytlacil, Ed, 2004. "Four Parameters of Interest in the Evaluation of Social Programs," Staff General Research Papers 12022, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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  4. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2003. "Further results on instrumental variables estimation of average treatment effects in the correlated random coefficient model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 185-191, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Heckman, James J, 1990. "Varieties of Selection Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 313-18, May.
  6. Frölich, Markus, 2002. "Nonparametric IV Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects with Covariates," IZA Discussion Papers 588, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2000. "Local Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1997. "On two stage least squares estimation of the average treatment effect in a random coefficient model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 129-133, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens, 1991. "Sources of Identifying Information in Evaluation Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Arellano, Manuel, 2002. "Sargan's Instrumental Variables Estimation and the Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 450-59, October.
  11. Bronars, Stephen G & Grogger, Jeff, 1994. "The Economic Consequences of Unwed Motherhood: Using Twin Births as a Natural Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1141-56, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Moffitt, Robert A., 1999. "New developments in econometric methods for labor market analysis," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1367-1397 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "Vision and Influence in Econometrics: John Denis Sargan," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1393, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Melissa Schettini Kearney, 2002. "Is There an Effect of Incremental Welfare Benefits on Fertility Behavior? A Look at the Family Cap," NBER Working Papers 9093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Rebecca M. Blank, 2002. "Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1105-1166, December.
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  16. Alberto Abadie & Joshua Angrist & Guido Imbens, 2002. "Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Effect of Subsidized Training on the Quantiles of Trainee Earnings," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 91-117, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Joshua Angrist, 1999. "Estimation of Limited-Dependent Variable Models with Dummy Endogenous Regressors: Simple Strategies for Empirical Practice," Working papers 99-31, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  18. Angrist, Joshua D & Evans, William N, 1998. "Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 450-77, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Manski, Charles F, 1990. "Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 319-23, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Abadie, Alberto, 2003. "Semiparametric instrumental variable estimation of treatment response models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 231-263, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. J.D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens & D.B. Rubin, 1993. "Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Chamberlain, Gary, 1986. "Asymptotic efficiency in semi-parametric models with censoring," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 189-218, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Jeff Grogger & Stephen G. Bronars, 2001. "The Effect of Welfare Payments on the Marriage and Fertility Behavior of Unwed Mothers: Results from a Twins Experiment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 529-545, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Chamberlain, Gary, 1987. "Asymptotic efficiency in estimation with conditional moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 305-334, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. V. Joseph Hotz & Guido W. Imbens & Jacob A. Klerman, 2000. "The Long-Term Gains from GAIN: A Re-Analysis of the Impacts of the California GAIN Program," NBER Working Papers 8007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Becker, Gary S & Landes, Elisabeth M & Michael, Robert T, 1977. "An Economic Analysis of Marital Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1141-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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