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Is Business Cycle Volatility Costly? Evidence from Surveys of Subjective Well-Being

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Wolfers, Justin (Stanford U)

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of business cycle volatility on measures of subjective well-being, including self-reported happiness and life satisfaction. I find robust evidence that high inflation and, to a greater extent, unemployment lower perceived well-being. Greater macroeconomic volatility also undermines well-being. These effects are moderate but important: eliminating unemployment volatility would raise well-being by an amount roughly equal to that from lowering the average level of unemployment by a quarter of a percentage point. The effects of inflation volatility on well-being are less easy to detect and are likely smaller.

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Paper provided by Stanford University, Graduate School of Business in its series Research Papers with number 1751r.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:1751r

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Easterlin, Richard A., 1995. "Will raising the incomes of all increase the happiness of all?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 35-47, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Boskin, Michael J & Sheshinski, Eytan, 1978. "Optimal Redistributive Taxation when Individual Welfare Depends upon Relative Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 589-601, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert J. Shiller, 1997. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 13-70 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andrew Atkeson & Christopher Phelan, 1994. "Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 4719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Laurence M. Ball, 1997. "Disinflation and the NAIRU," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 167-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  10. Douglas Laxton & Guy Debelle, 1996. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Working Papers 96/111, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Blanchflower, David G., 2008. "International Evidence on Well-being," IZA Discussion Papers 3354, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Lena Malesevic Perovic, 2008. "Subjective Economic Well-being in Transition Countries: Investigating the Relative Importance of Macroeconomic Variables," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(4), pages 519-537. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gadi Barlevy, 2005. "The cost of business cycles and the benefits of stabilization," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-49. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ossama Mikhail, 2004. "Economic Freedom and The Business Cycle: The Egyptian Experience," Macroeconomics 0402002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefits of Stabilization: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Marc Hofstetter, 2009. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America: Toward a Monetary Union?," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 005855, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE. [Downloadable!]
  7. Vicente Royuela & Jordi Suriñach, 2009. "Quality in work and aggregate productivity," IREA Working Papers 200901, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2009. [Downloadable!]
  8. Greg Hannsgen, 2007. "Are the Costs of the Business Cycle 'Trivially Small'?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_492, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  9. David G. Blanchflower & Chris Shadforth, 2007. "Entrepreneurship in the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 2818, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  10. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2002. "The States vs. the states: On the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in the U.S," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 20-17, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques, revised Oct 2002. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Michael Ehrmann & Panagiota Tzamourani, 2009. "Memories of high inflation," Working Paper Series 1095, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rafael Di Tella & Robert MacCulloch, 2005. "Gross National Happiness as an Answer to the Easterlin Paradox?," Macroeconomics 0504027, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. David A. Penn, 2005. "Determinants of Self-Reported Financial Security for Oklahoma County Households – An Application of Multiple Imputation," Working Papers 200504, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  14. Rafael Di Tella & Robert MacCulloch, 2007. "Happiness, Contentment and Other Emotions for Central Banks," NBER Working Papers 13622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Pavel Luengas & Inder J. Ruprah, 2009. "Should Central Banks Target Happiness? Evidence from Latin America," OVE Working Papers 0209, Inter-American Development Bank, Office of Evaluation and Oversight (OVE). [Downloadable!]
  16. Janet L. Yellen, 2004. "Stabilization policy: a reconsideration," Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jul 1. [Downloadable!]
  17. David G. Blanchflower, 2007. "Is Unemployment More Costly Than Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 13505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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