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Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence

Author

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  • Friedman, Jeffrey A.

    (Harvard University)

  • Zeckhauser, Richard

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

This article addresses the challenge of managing uncertainty when producing estimative intelligence. Much of the theory and practice of estimative intelligence aims to eliminate or reduce uncertainty, but this is often impossible or infeasible. This article instead argues that the goal of estimative intelligence should be to assess uncertainty. By drawing on a body of nearly 400 declassified National Intelligence Estimates as well as prominent texts on analytic tradecraft, this article argues that current tradecraft methods attempt to eliminate uncertainty in ways that can impede the accuracy, clarity, and utility of estimative intelligence. By contrast, a focus on assessing uncertainty suggests solutions to these problems and provides a promising analytic framework for thinking about estimative intelligence in general.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedman, Jeffrey A. & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2012. "Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence," Working Paper Series rwp12-027, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp12-027
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert N. Collins & David R. Mandel, 2019. "Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(6), pages 683-695, November.
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:6:p:683-695 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Paul Poast, 2024. "Prediction in international relations is hard, sometimes: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), March.
    4. Wouter Lammers & Valérie Pattyn & Sacha Ferrari & Sylvia Wenmackers & Steven Van de Walle, 2024. "Evidence for policy-makers: A matter of timing and certainty?," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 57(1), pages 171-191, March.
    5. Peter J Phillips & Gabriela Pohl, 2024. "Information, Uncertainty & Espionage," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 35-54, March.

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