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Does the Purchasing Power Parity Hold in Emerging Markets? Evidence from Black Market Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Cerrato, Mario

    (London Metropolitan University)

  • Nicholas Sarantis

Abstract

We examine the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis using a unique panel of monthly data on black market exchange rates for twenty emerging market economies over the period 19973M1-1993M12. We apply a large number of recent heterogeneous panel unit root and cointegration tests. Panel unit root tests do not favour mean reversion in the real black market exchange rate. The evidence for non-rejection of the unit root hypothesis remains robust even after allowing for structural breaks. Panel cointegration tests support evidence of cointegration between the nominal exchange rate and relative prices. These results contrast with those obtained from unit root tests. Since we believe that the former may be biased by the imposition of the joint symmetry and proportionality restriction, we test for such a restriction using likelihood ratio tests and find that it is strongly rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerrato, Mario & Nicholas Sarantis, 2003. "Does the Purchasing Power Parity Hold in Emerging Markets? Evidence from Black Market Exchange Rates," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 40, Royal Economic Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:40
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2006:i:7:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2008. "Black Market and Official Exchange Rates: Long‐run Equilibrium and Short‐run Dynamics," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 401-412, August.
    3. Jean-Francois Hoarau, 2010. "Does long-run purchasing power parity hold in Eastern and Southern African countries? Evidence from panel data stationary tests with multiple structural breaks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 307-315.
    4. Mario Cerrato & Nick Sarantis, 2006. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing and Emerging Market Economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(7), pages 1-14.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    black market exchange rates; purchasing power parity; panel unit root and cointegration tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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