IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20232835.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Innovation, industry equilibrium, and discount rates

Author

Listed:
  • Bustamante, Maria Cecilia
  • Zucchi, Francesca

Abstract

We develop a model to examine how discount rates affect the nature and composition of innovation within an industry. Challenging conventional wisdom, we show that higher discount rates do not discourage firm innovation when accounting for the industry equilibrium. Higher discount rates deter fresh entry—effectively acting as entry barriers—but encourage innovation through the intensive margin, which can lead to a higher industry innovation rate on net. Simultaneously, high discount rates foster explorative over exploitative innovation. The model rationalizes observed patterns of innovation cyclicality, and predicts that lower entry in downturns hedges innovating incumbents against higher discount rates. JEL Classification: G31, G12, O31

Suggested Citation

  • Bustamante, Maria Cecilia & Zucchi, Francesca, 2023. "Innovation, industry equilibrium, and discount rates," Working Paper Series 2835, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232835
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2835~f2bfa5dc7b.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gustavo Manso, 2011. "Motivating Innovation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1823-1860, October.
    2. Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2018. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1374-1443.
    3. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    4. Ufuk Akcigit & Douglas Hanley & Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, 2021. "Back to Basics: Basic Research Spillovers, Innovation Policy, and Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(1), pages 1-43.
    5. Robert S. Pindyck, 2009. "Sunk Costs and Risk-Based Barriers to Entry," NBER Working Papers 14755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Nicholas Bloom & Mark Schankerman & John Van Reenen, 2013. "Identifying Technology Spillovers and Product Market Rivalry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1347-1393, July.
    7. Valentin Haddad & Erik Loualiche & Matthew Plosser, 2017. "Buyout Activity: The Impact of Aggregate Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 371-414, February.
    8. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Noah Stoffman, 2020. "Left Behind: Creative Destruction, Inequality, and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(3), pages 855-906.
    9. Gu, Lifeng, 2016. "Product market competition, R&D investment, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 441-455.
    10. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    11. Malenko, Andrey & Malenko, Nadya, 2015. "A theory of LBO activity based on repeated debt-equity conflicts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 607-627.
    12. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    13. Ashish Arora & Sharon Belenzon & Lia Sheer, 2021. "Knowledge Spillovers and Corporate Investment in Scientific Research," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 871-898, March.
    14. Gao, Huasheng & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Li, Kai, 2018. "Innovation Strategy of Private Firms," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 1-32, February.
    15. Tor Jakob Klette & Samuel Kortum, 2004. "Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 986-1018, October.
    16. Nicolae Gârleanu & Stavros Panageas & Jianfeng Yu, 2012. "Technological Growth and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1265-1292, August.
    17. Hackbarth, Dirk & Miao, Jianjun, 2012. "The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions in oligopolistic industries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 585-609.
    18. Aghion, Philippe & Akcigit, Ufuk & Howitt, Peter, 2014. "What Do We Learn From Schumpeterian Growth Theory?," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 515-563, Elsevier.
    19. Owen A. Lamont, 2000. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2719-2745, December.
    20. Begenau, Juliane & Palazzo, Berardino, 2021. "Firm selection and corporate cash holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 697-718.
    21. Craig Doidge & Kathleen M. Kahle & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2018. "Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?," NBER Working Papers 24265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Arthur Korteweg, 2010. "The Net Benefits to Leverage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2137-2170, December.
    23. Jianjun Miao, 2005. "Optimal Capital Structure and Industry Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2621-2659, December.
    24. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    25. Richard R. Nelson, 1959. "The Simple Economics of Basic Scientific Research," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 297-297.
    26. Jonathan B. Berk, 2004. "Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 1-35.
    27. M. Cecilia Bustamante & Andres Donangelo, 2017. "Product Market Competition and Industry Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(12), pages 4216-4266.
    28. Lustig, Hanno & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2012. "Business cycle variation in the risk-return trade-off," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 35-49.
    29. Craig Doidge & Kathleen M. Kahle & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2018. "Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 30(1), pages 8-16, March.
    30. Daniel Ferreira & Gustavo Manso & André C. Silva, 2014. "Incentives to Innovate and the Decision to Go Public or Private," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 256-300, January.
    31. Kira R. Fabrizio & Ulya Tsolmon, 2014. "An Empirical Examination of the Procyclicality of R&D Investment and Innovation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 662-675, October.
    32. Peter Howitt, 1999. "Steady Endogenous Growth with Population and R & D Inputs Growing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(4), pages 715-730, August.
    33. Gârleanu, Nicolae & Kogan, Leonid & Panageas, Stavros, 2012. "Displacement risk and asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 491-510.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.
    2. Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2018. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1374-1443.
    3. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein, 2019. "Aggregate Implications of Innovation Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(6), pages 2625-2683.
    4. Malamud, Semyon & Zucchi, Francesca, 2019. "Liquidity, innovation, and endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 519-541.
    5. Lu, You-Xun & Chen, Shi-kuan & Lai, Ching-chong, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in a Schumpeterian Model with Incumbents and Entrants," MPRA Paper 112177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.
    7. Argente, David & Lee, Munseob & Moreira, Sara, 2018. "Innovation and product reallocation in the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-20.
    8. Ufuk Akcigit & Douglas Hanley & Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, 2021. "Back to Basics: Basic Research Spillovers, Innovation Policy, and Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(1), pages 1-43.
    9. Lu, You-Xun & Chen, Shi-kuan & Lai, Ching-chong, 2022. "Subsidies, Entry, and Economic Growth in a Schumpeterian Model with Incumbents and Entrants," MPRA Paper 112179, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Carlino, Gerald & Kerr, William R., 2015. "Agglomeration and Innovation," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 349-404, Elsevier.
    11. MORI Tomoya & SAKAGUCHI Shosei, 2018. "Collaborative Knowledge Creation: Evidence from Japanese patent data," Discussion papers 18068, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Aghion, Philippe & Akcigit, Ufuk & Howitt, Peter, 2014. "What Do We Learn From Schumpeterian Growth Theory?," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 515-563, Elsevier.
    13. Perotti, Enrico & Döttling, Robin, 2017. "Secular Trends and Technological Progress," CEPR Discussion Papers 12519, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Laurent Cavenaile & Pau Roldan-Blanco, 2021. "Advertising, Innovation, and Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 251-303, July.
    15. Salome Baslandze, 2015. "The Role of the IT Revolution in Knowledge Diffusion, Innovation and Reallocation," 2015 Meeting Papers 1488, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Douglas Hanley, 2014. "Innovation, Technological Interdependence, and Economic Growth," Working Paper 533, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jan 2014.
    17. Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2015. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovation, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-020, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 25 Mar 2015.
    18. Philippe Aghion & Ufuk Akcigit & Antonin Bergeaud & Richard Blundell & David Hemous, 2019. "Innovation and Top Income Inequality," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 1-45.
    19. Ramana Nanda & William R. Kerr, 2015. "Financing Innovation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 445-462, December.
    20. Michel Dumont, 2015. "Working Paper 05-15 - Evaluation of federal tax incentives for private R&D in Belgium: An update," Working Papers 1505, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    creative destruction; risk premia; time-varying discount rates; Vertical and horizontal innovation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232835. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.