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Asset prices and current account fluctuations in G7 economies

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  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Straub, Roland

Abstract

The paper analyses the effect of equity price shocks on current account positions for the G7 industrialized countries in 1974-2007. It uses a Bayesian VAR with sign restrictions for the identification of asset price shocks and to test empirically for their effect on current accounts. Such shocks are found to exert a sizeable effect, with a 10 percent equity price increase for instance in the United States relative to the rest of the world worsening the US trade balance by 0.9 percentage points after 16 quarters. However, the response of the trade balance to equity price shocks varies substantially across countries. The evidence suggests that the channels accounting for this heterogeneity function both through wealth effects on private consumption and to some extent through the real exchange rate of countries. JEL Classification: E2, F32, F40, G1

Suggested Citation

  • Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2009. "Asset prices and current account fluctuations in G7 economies," Working Paper Series 1014, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091014
    Note: 335955
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    Cited by:

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    2. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
    3. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2014. "In‐Sample and Out‐of‐Sample Prediction of stock Market Bubbles: Cross‐Sectional Evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 15-31, January.
    4. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2023. "The corporate sector and the current account," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 826-857.
    5. Daryna Grechyna, 2020. "Current account and international networks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 1269-1294, November.
    6. Saeidinezhad, Elham, 2014. "The International Spillover of Fiscal and Technology Shocks before the Crisis: The case of the UK and Italy," MPRA Paper 98556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Komain Jiranyakul, 2017. "Asset Prices, Real Exchange Rate and Current Account Fluctuations: Some Structural VAR Evidence for Thailand," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(2), pages 163-177, December.
    8. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2015. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(2), pages 176-196, August.
    9. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Rangan Gupta & Aviral K. Tiwari, 2018. "Time-varying correlations between trade balance and stock prices in the United States over the period 1792 to 2013," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 795-806, October.
    10. Holinski, N. & Vermeulen, R., 2009. "The international wealth effect : a global error-correcting analysis," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    11. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Koop, Gary & Vicard, Vincent, 2018. "One size does not fit all… panel data: Bayesian model averaging and data poolability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 364-376.
    12. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2013. "Income distribution and current account: A sectoral perspective," IMK Working Paper 125-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    13. Sebastian Coralia Emilia POPA, 2017. "Quantification model of the consequences of monetary policy shocks," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(19), pages 122-128, November.
    14. Behringer, Jan & van Treeck, Till, 2018. "Income distribution and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 238-254.
    15. Alexander Guschanski & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2017. "Are current accounts driven by competitiveness or asset prices? A synthetic model and an empirical test," Working Papers PKWP1716, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    16. Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad & Taylor, Mark P., 2019. "Modelling portfolio capital flows in a global framework: Multilateral implications of capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 142-160.
    17. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2010. "Exploring the international transmission of U.S. stock price movements," MPRA Paper 23977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou, 2013. "Working Paper 169 - Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South African Trade Balance," Working Paper Series 448, African Development Bank.
    19. Tim Oliver Berg, 2013. "Cross-country evidence on the relation between stock prices and the current account," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2267-2277, June.
    20. Irina-Marilena, Ban, 2022. "Introducing house prices to the intertemporal current account model: An application to the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    21. Nikolaychuk Sergiy & Shapovalenko Nadiia, 2013. "The identification of the sources of current account fluctuations in Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 13/12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    22. Kucukali, Serhat, 2016. "Risk scorecard concept in wind energy projects: An integrated approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 975-987.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Prices; Bayesian VAR; current account; financial markets; identification; industrialized economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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