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Exchange rate volatility and euro area imports

Author

Listed:
  • Anderton, Robert
  • Skudelny, Frauke

Abstract

This paper estimates an import demand function for the euro area vis--vis its main extra-area trading partners which takes into account the possible impact of both intra- and extra-euro area exchange rate uncertainty. We derive a theoretical model which captures various mechanisms by which exchange rate volatility may influence the demand for extra-euro area imports. If importers are risk averse, the model predicts not only a negative effect of exchange rate volatility, but also substitution possibilities between extra- and intra-area imports due to differences in the degree of extra- and intra-area exchange rate volatility. The magnitude of these impacts also depends on the share of trade invoiced in foreign currency (and not hedged) as well as the degree of substitutability between the imports of different suppliers. Using quarterly data for the past eleven years, panel estimates suggest that extra-area exchange rate volatility may have decreased extra-euro area imports by around 10 per cent. Although such quantitative estimates should be treated with caution, the magnitude of our estimate is similar to other studies which find a statistically significant impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows. Finally, we also provide some limited evidence that differences in extra- and intra-area exchange rate volatility may have resulted in substitution between extra- and intra-area imports. JEL Classification: F15, F31

Suggested Citation

  • Anderton, Robert & Skudelny, Frauke, 2001. "Exchange rate volatility and euro area imports," Working Paper Series 64, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:200164
    Note: 339014
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp064.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 59(02), pages 171-190, June.
    2. Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and export trade in Nigeria: an empirical investigation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1071-1084.
    3. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    4. Boris Blagov, 2019. "Exchange rate uncertainty and import prices in the euro area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 1537-1572, November.
    5. Sergio Rossi, 2004. "Monetary integration strategies and perspectives of new EU countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 443-469.
    6. Naledi C. Modisaatsone & G.R. Motlaleng, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Botswana`s imports," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 125-138.
    7. Muteba Mwamba, John & Dube, Sandile, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade between South Africa, China and USA: The case of the manufacturing sector," MPRA Paper 64389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Dorrucci, Ettore & Fratzscher, Marcel & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Firpo, Stefano, 2002. "European integration: what lessons for other regions? The case of Latin America," Working Paper Series 185, European Central Bank.
    9. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    10. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, February.
    11. Abimelech Paye Gbatu & Zhen Wang & Presley K. Wesseh, Jr & Isaac Yak Repha Tutdel, 2017. "Asymmetric and Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from a Panel of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13.
    12. Salahuddin & Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen, 2020. "Economic & Cultural Distance & Regional Integration: Evidence from Gravity Model Using Disaggregated Data for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 243-274.
    13. Abimelech Paye Gbatu & Zhen Wang & Presley K. Wesseh Jr. & Isaac Yak Repha Tutdel, 2017. "Causal Effects and Dynamic Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Development in Liberia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 119-131.
    14. Sadettin Haluk Citci & Hüseyin Kaya, 2023. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Connectedness of Inflation," Working Papers 2022-01, Gebze Technical University, Department of Economics.
    15. Lucas Njoroge, 2020. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports in COMESA: A Panel Gravity Model Approach," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(6), pages 1-10.
    16. David Greenaway, & Richard Kneller, & Xufei Zhang, 2007. "Exchange Rates and Exports: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    17. Rossi, Sergio, 2004. "The enlargement of the euro area: what lessons can be learned from EMU?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 947-970, January.
    18. Francesco Grigoli, 2012. "The Impact of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Synchronization for Mercosur Countries," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 9(1), pages 103-131, April.
    19. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank.
    20. Dorrucci, Ettore & Firpo, Stefano & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "European integration: what lessons for other regions? The case of Latin America," Working Paper Series 0185, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area imports; exchange rate; rate volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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