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Who has been affected, how and why? The spillover of the global financial crisis to Sub-Saharan Africa and ways to recovery

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  • Geis, André
  • Chauvin, Sophie

Abstract

This paper first presents a comprehensive analysis of the significance of different transmission channels of the global economic and financial crisis to Sub-Saharan African countries. It then examines the repercussions of the crisis for the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) and its components; this is complemented by a study of the responses of monetary and fiscal authorities to the challenges posed by the crisis, both in regional terms and on the basis of selected country case studies. Finally, the paper highlights medium-term to long-term challenges for ensuring a sustainable recovery and for fostering resilience against potential future shocks.The authors find that the intensity of the impact of the crisis varies widely across countries, with a lack of export diversification apparently having been particularly conducive to its transmission. However, the analysis of the magnitude of the observed swings in macroeconomic variables also reveals that although they were large, they were not exceptional and are comparable to fl uctuations Sub-Saharan Africa has witnessed in the recent past. Furthermore, in a non-negligible number of instances the extent of the slowdown seems to have been determined by domestic factors as well. Particularly, policies and conditions prior to the global recession, rather than crisis contagion per se, appear decisively to have shaped the scope of possible responses in many cases.As a result, many of the policy lessons Sub- Saharan Africa might draw from the crisis do not involve radical deviation from the policies in place before. Efforts to improve the management of resource revenue for commodity-dependent countries, necessary reforms of the economic and business environment to enable a diversification of the export base, and further regional integration might help to alleviate possible future external shocks. Additionally, the crisis re-emphasises the need to back growth prospects by redefining sectoral priorities. JEL Classification: E52, E31, D84

Suggested Citation

  • Geis, André & Chauvin, Sophie, 2011. "Who has been affected, how and why? The spillover of the global financial crisis to Sub-Saharan Africa and ways to recovery," Occasional Paper Series 124, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2011124
    Note: 504004
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp124.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chauvin, Sophie & Geis, André, 2011. "Who has been affected, how and why? The spillover of the global financial crisis to Sub-Saharan Africa and ways to recovery," Occasional Paper Series 124, European Central Bank.
    2. Michael Sturm & François Gurtner & Juan Gonzalez Alegre, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries – a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    3. Sturm, Michael & Gurtner, François & González Alegre, Juan, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries: a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    4. Dimitre Milkov & Rafael A Portillo & Plamen K Iossifov & John Wakeman-Linn, 2009. "The International Financial Crisis and Global Recession; Impact on the CEMAC Region and Policy Considerations," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/20, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Zaijin Zhan & Mr. Robert C York, 2009. "Fiscal Vulnerability and Sustainability in Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/174, International Monetary Fund.
    6. John Thornton, 2008. "Explaining Procyclical Fiscal Policy in African Countries †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(3), pages 451-464, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Simplice Asongu & Lieven De Moor & Vanessa Tchamyou, 2015. "Pre- and post-crisis dynamics of financial globalisation for financial development in Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 15/045, African Governance and Development Institute..
    2. Asongu, Simplice A. & Koomson, Isaac & Tchamyou, Vanessa S., 2017. "Financial globalisation uncertainty/instability is good for financial development," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 280-291.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "Central banking in Africa: prospects in a changing world," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 56.
    4. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna, 2020. "Financial crisis, financial globalisation and financial development in Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/049, African Governance and Development Institute..
    5. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna, 2021. "Financial Crisis, Globalisation and Development in Africa," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(1), pages 89-104, February.
    6. Logan Rangasamy & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2011. "Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Central banking in Africa: prospects in a changing world, volume 56, pages 63-80, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    balance of payments; global economic crisis; international spillover; regional growth; sub-saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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