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Employment and Population in European Union: Econometric Models and Causality Tests

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  • Aguayo, Eva
  • Guisan, Maria-Carmen

Abstract

We analyse the interdependence between non-agrarian employment, real value-added and population in 98 European regions, by means of a pool of data for the period 1985-1995, and in 5 EU countries with a pool for 1961-97. We test causality by means of Hausman´s test in these three equations models. Besides we test causality by means of Granger´s test and with time series of each country for 1961-2000. The main conclusion is that there is some degree of interdependence among the three variable: 1) Population moves towards employment. 2) Production increases with population and with social and institutional factors (human capital and other ones). 3) Employment increases with production and population.. The results agree with the Freeman´s conclusions for regional employment and population movements in the USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguayo, Eva & Guisan, Maria-Carmen, 2004. "Employment and Population in European Union: Econometric Models and Causality Tests," Economic Development 80, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ecodev:80
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rolf Funck & Gerhard Rembold, 1975. "A Multiregion, Multisector Forecasting Model For The Federal Republic Of Germany," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 69-82, January.
    2. Nakamura, Alice & Nakamura, Masao, 1981. "On the Relationships among Several Specification Error Tests Presented by Durbin, Wu, and Hausman," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1583-1588, November.
    3. Laurence Nayman & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2001. "The French-German Productivity Comparison Revisited : Ten Years after the German Unification," Working Papers 2001-14, CEPII research center.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guisan, M.C. & Aguayo, E., 2007. "Production By Sector In The European Union: Analysis Of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland And The United Kingdom, 2000-2005," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1), pages 33-46.
    2. Guisan, M.C. & Aguayo, E., 2006. "Employment by Sector in the European Union, the United States, Mexico and Canada, 1985-2005," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1), pages 21-34.
    3. Guisan, M.C. & Aguayo, E., 2004. "Employment, Population and Regional Development in Western and Central Europe. Econometric Models and Challenges of EU Enlargement," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2), pages 129-142.
    4. Zisiadou, Argyro & Metaxas, Theodore, 2014. "The Mediterranean countries of European Union and their progress from 1980 to 2012: A comparative analysis," MPRA Paper 55029, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causality tests; Models of Employment and Population; Models of Employment and Production; European Economic; Regional Development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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