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The perception of climate sensitivity: Revealing priors from posteriors

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  • Masako Ikefuji
  • Jan R. Magnus

Abstract

A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. In practice, the data and the posterior are often observed but not the prior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to (equilibrium) climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into their prior beliefs. It appears that the IPCC scientists have agreed a priori on a value for the climate equilibrium between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius, while judging the occurrence of a real disaster much more likely than the previous report predicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Masako Ikefuji & Jan R. Magnus, 2020. "The perception of climate sensitivity: Revealing priors from posteriors," ISER Discussion Paper 1111, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1111
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    File URL: https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2020/DP1111.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roger M Cooke & Bruce Wielicki, 2018. "Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 541-554, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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