IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/wsrepe/ws141711.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bayesian estimation of a dynamic conditional correlation model with multivariate Skew-Slash innovations

Author

Listed:
  • García de la Fuente, Cristina
  • Galeano San Miguel, Pedro
  • Wiper, Michael Peter

Abstract

Financial returns often present a complex relation with previous observations, along with a slight skewness and high kurtosis. As a consequence, we must pursue the use of flexible models that are able to seize these special features: a financial process that can expose the intertemporal relation between observations, together with a distribution that can capture asymmetry and heavy tails simultaneously. A multivariate extension of the GARCH such as the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model with Skew-Slashinnovations for financial time series in a Bayesian framework is proposed in the present document, and it is illustrated using an MCMC within Gibbs algorithm performed onsimulated data, as well as real data drawn from the daily closing prices of the DAX,CAC40, and Nikkei indices

Suggested Citation

  • García de la Fuente, Cristina & Galeano San Miguel, Pedro & Wiper, Michael Peter, 2014. "Bayesian estimation of a dynamic conditional correlation model with multivariate Skew-Slash innovations," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141711, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws141711
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/f726c7a9-74b4-4bcb-b0a7-2dbf3488e129/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Weide, R. van der, 2002. "Generalized Orthogonal GARCH. A Multivariate GARCH model," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    3. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    4. Ausin, Maria Concepcion & Galeano, Pedro, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of the Gaussian mixture GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 2636-2652, February.
    5. Jeantheau, Thierry, 1998. "Strong Consistency Of Estimators For Multivariate Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 70-86, February.
    6. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2007. "Multivariate GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 669, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 18 Jan 2008.
    7. A. Azzalini & A. Capitanio, 1999. "Statistical applications of the multivariate skew normal distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(3), pages 579-602.
    8. Jos� A. Fioruci & Ricardo S. Ehlers & Marinho G. Andrade Filho, 2014. "Bayesian multivariate GARCH models with dynamic correlations and asymmetric error distributions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 320-331, February.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    11. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Gian Piero Aielli, 2013. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: On Properties and Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 282-299, July.
    13. Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990. "Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237.
    14. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    15. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    16. Galeano, Pedro & Ausín, M. Concepción, 2010. "The Gaussian Mixture Dynamic Conditional Correlation Model: Parameter Estimation, Value at Risk Calculation, and Portfolio Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 559-571.
    17. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    18. García de la Fuente, Cristina & Galeano San Miguel, Pedro & Wiper, Michael Peter, 2012. "Modeling financial time series with the skew slash distribution," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws121108, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    19. Kawakatsu, Hiroyuki, 2006. "Matrix exponential GARCH," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 95-128, September.
    20. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    21. Bai, Xuezheng & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Tiao, George C., 2003. "Kurtosis of GARCH and stochastic volatility models with non-normal innovations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 349-360, June.
    22. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t‐distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389, May.
    23. I. D. Vrontos & P. Dellaportas & D. N. Politis, 2003. "A full-factor multivariate GARCH model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 312-334, December.
    24. Roy van der Weide, 2002. "GO-GARCH: a multivariate generalized orthogonal GARCH model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 549-564.
    25. Engle, Robert F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Kraft, Dennis, 1984. "Combining competing forecasts of inflation using a bivariate arch model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 151-165, November.
    26. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saker Sabkha & Christian de Peretti, 2018. "On the performances of Dynamic Conditional Correlation models in the Sovereign CDS market and the corresponding bond market," Working Papers hal-01710398, HAL.
    2. Saker Sabkha & Christian de Peretti, 2022. "On the performances of Dynamic Conditional Correlation models in the Sovereign CDS market and the corresponding bond market," Post-Print hal-01710398, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2007. "Multivariate GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 669, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 18 Jan 2008.
    2. Audrone Virbickaite & M. Concepción Ausín & Pedro Galeano, 2015. "Bayesian Inference Methods For Univariate And Multivariate Garch Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 76-96, February.
    3. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C. & Laurent, S., 2012. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner C. & Laurent, S., 2011. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    4. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    6. de Almeida, Daniel & Hotta, Luiz K. & Ruiz, Esther, 2018. "MGARCH models: Trade-off between feasibility and flexibility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 45-63.
    7. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    8. Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Temporal Aggregation Of Univariate And Multivariate Time Series Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 458-497, July.
    9. Santos, André A.P. & Moura, Guilherme V., 2014. "Dynamic factor multivariate GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 606-617.
    10. João Caldeira & Guilherme Moura & André A.P. Santos, 2012. "Portfolio optimization using a parsimonious multivariate GARCH model: application to the Brazilian stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 1848-1857.
    11. Takashi Isogai, 2015. "An Empirical Study of the Dynamic Correlation of Japanese Stock Returns," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    12. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    13. Morana, Claudio, 2019. "Regularized semiparametric estimation of high dimensional dynamic conditional covariance matrices," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 42-65.
    14. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension: An Empirical Evaluation," Working Papers in Economics 11/23, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    15. Duchesne, Pierre, 2006. "Testing for multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity using wavelets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2142-2163, December.
    16. Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts & Francesco Violante, 2012. "On the forecasting accuracy of multivariate GARCH models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 934-955, September.
    17. García-Ferrer, Antonio & González-Prieto, Ester & Peña, Daniel, 2012. "A conditionally heteroskedastic independent factor model with an application to financial stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 70-93.
    18. Rosenow, Bernd, 2008. "Determining the optimal dimensionality of multivariate volatility models with tools from random matrix theory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 279-302, January.
    19. Han, Chulwoo & Park, Frank C., 2022. "A geometric framework for covariance dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    20. Caporin, Massimiliano & McAleer, Michael, 2014. "Robust ranking of multivariate GARCH models by problem dimension," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 172-185.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws141711. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://portal.uc3m.es/portal/page/portal/dpto_estadistica .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.