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Ignoring cross-correlated idiosyncratic components when extracting factors in dynamic factor models

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Listed:
  • Fresoli, Diego Eduardo
  • Poncela Blanco, Maria Pilar
  • Ruiz Ortega, Esther

Abstract

In economics, Principal Components, its generalized version that takes into account heteroscedasticity, and Kalman filter and smoothing procedures are among the most popular procedures for factor extraction in the context of Dynamic Factor Models. This paper analyses the consequences on point and interval factor estimation of using these procedures when the idiosyncratic components are wrongly assumed to be cross-sectionally uncorrelated. We show that not taking into account the presence of cross-sectional dependence increases the uncertainty of point estimates of the factors. Furthermore, the Mean Square Errors computed using the usual expressions based on asymptotic approximations, are underestimated and may lead to prediction intervals with extremely low coverages.

Suggested Citation

  • Fresoli, Diego Eduardo & Poncela Blanco, Maria Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2022. "Ignoring cross-correlated idiosyncratic components when extracting factors in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 36251, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:36251
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jushan Bai & Kunpeng Li, 2016. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference for Approximate Factor Models of High Dimension," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 298-309, May.
    2. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EM Algorithm;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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