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Markov-perfect optimal fiscal policy : the case of unbalanced budgets

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  • Ortigueira, Salvador
  • Pereira, Joana
  • Pichler, Paul

Abstract

We study optimal time-consistent fiscal policy in a neoclassical economy with endogenous government spending, physical capital and public debt. We show that a dynamic complementarity between the households’ consumption-savings decision and the government’s policy decision gives rise to a multiplicity of expectations-driven Markov-perfect equilibria. The long-run levels of taxes, government spending and debt are not uniquely pinned down by economic fundamentals, but are determined by expectations over current and future policies. Accordingly, economies with identical fundamentals may significantly differ in their levels of public indebtedness

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  • Ortigueira, Salvador & Pereira, Joana & Pichler, Paul, 2012. "Markov-perfect optimal fiscal policy : the case of unbalanced budgets," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1230, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we1230
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    Cited by:

    1. Leeper, Eric M. & Leith, Campbell & Liu, Ding, 2021. "Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary, Fiscal and Debt Maturity Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 600-617.
    2. Stefan Niemann & Paul Pichler, 2017. "Collateral, Liquidity and Debt Sustainability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 2093-2126, September.
    3. Azzimonti, Marina & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel & Soares, Jorge, 2009. "Distortionary taxes and public investment when government promises are not enforceable," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1662-1681, September.
    4. Martin, Fernando M., 2015. "Policy And Welfare Effects Of Within-Period Commitment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(7), pages 1401-1426, October.
    5. Ricardo Nunes & Davide Debortoli, 2007. "Political Disagreement, Lack of Commitment and the Level of Debt," 2007 Meeting Papers 725, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Niemann, Stefan, 2011. "Dynamic monetary–fiscal interactions and the role of monetary conservatism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 234-247.
    7. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2010. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures: Selecting among Multiple Discretionary Equilibria," MPRA Paper 24616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Richard Dennis, 2013. "Asset Prices, Business Cycles, and Markov-Perfect Fiscal Policy when Agents are Risk-Sensitive," CAMA Working Papers 2013-69, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Niemann, S & Pichler, P & Sorger, G, 2008. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy Without Commitment," Economics Discussion Papers 2897, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    10. Yuki Uchida & Tetsuo Ono, 2024. "Generational Distribution of Fiscal Burdens: A Positive Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 393-430, February.
    11. Grechyna, Daryna, 2016. "Debt And Deficit Fluctuations In A Time-Consistent Setup," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(7), pages 1771-1794, October.
    12. Arai, Real & Naito, Katsuyuki & Ono, Tetsuo, 2018. "Intergenerational policies, public debt, and economic growth: A politico-economic analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 39-52.
    13. repec:esx:essedp:730 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Arai, Real & Naito, Katsuyuki, 2014. "A Politico-economic Approach on Public Debt in an Endogenous Growth Economy," MPRA Paper 56213, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Grechyna, Daryna, 2015. "Quantifying the Impact of Political Frictions on Public Policy," MPRA Paper 65266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Zeynep Burcu BULUT-ÇEVİK, 2020. "Fiscal Decentralization with a Redistribution Rule vs. Fiscal Centralization," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(44).
    17. Gerasimos T. Soldatos, 2021. "In/Estabilidad bajo el impuesto sobre la renta ideal y el impuesto sobre el consumo ideal," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 44(124), pages 33-42, Enero.
    18. Grechyna, Daryna, 2016. "Political frictions and public policy outcomes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 484-495.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal fiscal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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