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Diffusion of Technical Change and the Decomposition of Output into Trend and Cycle

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Author Info
Lippi, Marco
Reichlin, Lucrezia

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Abstract

In this paper we argue that modelling the trend component in real GNP as a random walk is inconsistent with its interpretation as productivity growth. As an alternative we specify the trend as an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) process, whose impulse response function follows an S-shaped pattern reflecting the process of diffusion of technical change. Such an ARIMA process is employed to build and estimate an Unobserved Components ARIMA (UCARIMA) model using USA post-war quarterly data. We find that our model, although more parsimonious, fits the data as well as the standard random walk plus AR(2) cycle. Moreover, the cycle has a very low variance relative to the variance of the trend in our model.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 775.

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Date of creation: May 1993
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:775

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Related research
Keywords: Non-Stationarity; Productivity Growth; Random Walk;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
O49 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other

Cited by:
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  1. David Andolfatto & Glenn MacDonald, 2004. "Jobless Recoveries," Macroeconomics 0412014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 75, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  4. Cellini, Roberto & Paolino, Alessandro, 2007. "Price of recreational products and the exchange rate: an empirical investigation on US data," MPRA Paper 5194, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Urzúa, Carlos M., 2007. "A Back-of-the-Envelope Rule to Identify Atheoretical VARs," EGAP Working Papers 2007-03, Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Cliff L.F. Attfield & Jonathan R.W. Temple, 2003. "Measuring trend output: how useful are the Great Ratios?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/555, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Isabel Kit-Ming Yan & Guoxin Liu, 2007. "The Aggregated Structural-Change Model," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(2), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lalonde, René & Page, Jennifer & St-Amant, Pierre, 1998. "Une nouvelle méthode d'estimation de l'écart de production et son application aux États-Unis, au Canada et à l'Allemagne," Working Papers 98-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  9. Gabor Vadas & Zsolt Darvas, 2005. "Univariate Potential Output Estimations for Hungary," Macroeconomics 0512009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  10. David Andolfatto & Glenn MacDonald, 1998. "Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 338-370, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Timothy Cogley, 1997. "Evaluating non-structural measures of the business cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-21. [Downloadable!]
  12. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Technical Reports 78, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 53, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
  14. Schumacher, Christian, 2000. "Forecasting Trend Output in the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 26245, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "Asymmetric Cycles," NBER Working Papers 10573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Pistoresi, Barbara & Strozzi, Chiara, 2001. "Rent Sharing in Wage Determination: Evidence from Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2939, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Iris Claus, 1999. "Estimating potential output for New Zealand: a structural VAR approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  18. Clifford L.F. Attfield, 2003. "Structural Breaks and Permanent Trends," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/545, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
  19. Jonathan Temple & Cliff Attfield, 2004. "Measuring trend growth: how useful are the great ratios?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  20. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, . "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  21. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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