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Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope

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Author Info
Akram, Qaisar Farooq
Rime, Dagfinn
Sarno, Lucio

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Abstract

This paper provides real-time evidence on the frequency, size, duration and economic significance of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market. We investigate deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency. The analysis unveils that: i) short-lived violations of CIP arise; ii) the size of CIP violations can be economically significant; iii) their duration is, on average, high enough to allow agents to exploit them, but low enough to explain why such opportunities have gone undetected in much previous research using data at lower frequency.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6878.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6878

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Related research
Keywords: arbitrage covered interest rate parity exchange rates foreign exchange microstructure

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kaplan, Steven & Strömberg, Per Johan, 2002. "Characteristics, Contracts and Actions: Evidence from Venture Capitalist Analyses," CEPR Discussion Papers 3243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Carol Osler, 2000. "Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-68. [Downloadable!]
  5. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2002. "Informational integration and FX trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 807-831, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sanford J. Grossman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," NBER Reprints 0121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Ericsson, Jan & Reneby, Joel, 2003. "Valuing Corporate Liabilities," SIFR Research Report Series 15, Swedish Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Osler, Carol L., 2005. "Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-241, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jan Ericsson & Kris Jacobs & Rodolfo A. Oviedo, 2004. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-55, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Bjönnes, Geir H. & Holden, Steinar & Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon O.Aa., 2005. "'Large' vs. 'Small' Players: A Closer Look at the Dynamics of Speculative Attacks," SIFR Research Report Series 38, Swedish Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2005. "An Information Approach to International Currencies," NBER Working Papers 11220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sundaram, Rangarajan K. & Yermack, David, 2006. "Pay Me Later: Inside Debt and Its Role in Managerial Compensation," SIFR Research Report Series 43, Swedish Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  14. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Profits and Speculation in Intra-Day Foreign Exchange Trading," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-339, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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