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Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves

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Author Info
Obstfeld, Maurice
Shambaugh, Jay C
Taylor, Alan M

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Abstract

The rapid growth of international reserves|a development concentrated in the emerging markets|remains a puzzle. In this paper we suggest that a model based on financial stability and financial openness goes far toward explaining reserve holdings in the modern era of globalized capital markets. The size of domestic financial liabilities that could potentially be converted into foreign currency (M2), financial openness, the ability to access foreign currency through debt markets, and exchange rate policy are all significant predictors of reserve stocks. Our empirical financial- stability model seems to outperform both traditional models and recent explanations based on external short-term debt.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6693.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6693

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Related research
Keywords: banking crises; capital flight; central banks; exchange rate regimes; financial development; foreign exchange; global imbalances; Guidotti-Greenspan rule; international liquidity; intervention; lender of last resort; net foreign assets; sterilization; sudden stop;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
O24 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2004. "The price of inconvertible deposits: the stock market boom during the Argentine crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 7-13, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Miller, Victoria, 2000. "Central bank reactions to banking crises in fixed exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 451-472, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alexander D. Rothenberg & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 12726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Robert P. Flood & Nancy Peregrim Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 02/62, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Obstfeld, Maurice & Shambaugh, Jay C & Taylor, Alan M, 2004. "Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 4353, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Bahmani-Oskooee, M & Brown, F, 2002. "Demand for International Reserves: A Review Article," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(10), pages 1209-26, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1996. "Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 207-23, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Too Much of a Good Thing? The Adequacy of International Reserves in the Aftermath of Crises," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(6), pages 873-891, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. della Paolera, Gerardo & Taylor, Alan M., 2002. "Internal versus external convertibility and emerging-market crises: lessons from Argentine history," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 357-389, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," NBER Working Papers 8841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 70-92, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1996. "Capital flows and macroeconomic management: tequila lessons," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  20. Hyun Song, 2005. "Liquidity and Twin Crises," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 34(3), pages 257-277, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yinqiu Lu & Udaibir S. Das & Christian B. Mulder & Amadou N. R. Sy, 2009. "Setting up a Sovereign Wealth Fund: Some Policy and Operational Considerations," IMF Working Papers 09/179, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Arslan Razmi, 2009. "Bretton Woods II and the Emerging Economies: Lazarus, Phoenix, or Humpty Dumpty?," Working Papers 2009-02, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Milan Zavadjil, 2008. "Are Emerging Asia’s Reserves Really Too High?," IMF Working Papers 08/192, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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