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Creditor Protection, Contagion, and Stock Market Price Volatility

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Author Info
Hale, Galina B
Razin, Assaf
Tong, Hui

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Abstract

We study a mechanism through which strong creditor protection affect positively the level, and negatively the volatility, of the aggregate stock market price. In a Tobin-q model with liquidity and productivity shocks, two channels are at work: (1) Creditor protection raises the stock value in a credit-constraint regime; (2) Creditor protection lowers the probability of the credit crunch. We confront the key predictions of the model to a panel of 40 countries over the period from 1984 to 2004. We find support to the hypothesis that creditor protection have a positive effect on the level, and a negative effect of the volatility, of stock prices, via the negative effect of the creditor protection on the probability of credit crunch.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6658.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6658

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Related research
Keywords: credit crunch; Probit estimation; Tobin q;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hart, Oliver & Moore, John, 1994. "A Theory of Debt Based on the Inalienability of Human Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(4), pages 841-79, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hale, Galina B & Razin, Assaf & Tong, Hui, 2006. "Institutional Weakness and Stock Price Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 5651, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  7. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-59, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Micco, 2005. "Creditor Protection and Credit Volatility," RES Working Papers 4401, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Officer, R R, 1973. "The Variability of the Market Factor of the New York Stock Exchange," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 434-53, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2000. "Investor protection and corporate governance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 3-27. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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