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Spatial Growth and Industry Age

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Author Info
Desmet, Klaus
Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban

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Abstract

U.S. county data for the last 20 or 30 years show that manufacturing employment has been deconcentrating. In contrast, the service sector exhibits concentration in counties with intermediate levels of employment. This paper presents a theory where local sectoral growth is driven by technological diffusion across space. The age of an industry -- measured as the time elapsed since the last major general purpose technology innovation in the sector -- determines the pattern of scale dependence in growth rates. Young industries exhibit non-monotone relationships between employment levels and growth rates, while old industries experience negative scale dependence in growth rates. The model then predicts that the relationship between county employment growth rates and county employment levels in manufacturing at the turn of the 20th century should be similar to the same relationship in services in the last 20 years. We provide evidence consistent with this prediction.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6421.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6421

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Related research
Keywords: industry age; scale dependence; spatial growth; US counties;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
R1 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  5. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2005. "A Spatial Theory of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1464-1491, December. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Mark L. J. Wright, 2006. "Urban structure and growth," Staff Report 381, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. R. Jason Faberman, 2007. "The relationship between the establishment age distribution and urban growth," Working Papers 07-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michaels, Guy & Rauch, Ferdinand & Redding, Stephen J, 2008. "Urbanization and Structural Transformation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Anastasios Xepapadeas & William Brock, 2009. "General Pattern Formation in Recursive Dynamical Systems Models in Economics," Working Papers 2009.49, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Daniel F. Heuermann, 2009. "Reinventing the Skilled Region: Human Capital Externalities and Industrial Change," Discussion Papers 200902, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Community (IAAEG). [Downloadable!]
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