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From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory

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Galor, Oded

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Abstract

This Paper examines the process of development from an epoch of Malthusian stagnation to a state of sustained economic growth. The analysis focuses on recently advanced unified growth theories that capture the intricate evolution of income per capita, technology, and population over the course of human history. Deciphering the underlying forces that triggered the transition from stagnation to growth and the associated phenomenon of the great divergence in income per capita across countries has been widely viewed as one of the most significant challenges facing researchers in the field of growth and development. The inconsistency of non-unified growth models with the main characteristics of the process of development across most of human history induced growth theorists to advance an alternative theory that captures in a single unified framework the epoch of Malthusian stagnation, the modern era of sustained economic growth, and the recent transition between these distinct regimes. Unified growth theory reveals the underlying micro foundations that are consistent with the growth process over the entire history of the human species, enhancing the confidence in the viability of the theory, its predictions and policy implications for the growth process of less developed economies.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4581.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4581

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Related research
Keywords: class structure; demographic transition; evolution; growth; human capital; income distribution; Malthusian stagnation; natural selection; technological progress;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O14 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Hans-Joachim Voth, 2003. "Living Standards During the Industrial Revolution: An Economist's Guide," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 221-226, May. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Schultz, Theodore W, 1975. "The Value of the Ability to Deal with Disequilibria," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 827-46, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Young, Alwyn, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Tamura, Robert, 2002. "Human capital and the switch from agriculture to industry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 207-242, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1980. "Testing the Quantity-Quality Fertility Model: The Use of Twins as a Natural Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 227-40, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Taylor, Alan M., 1999. "Sources of convergence in the late nineteenth century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(9), pages 1621-1645, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2003. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," Development and Comp Systems 0312006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Arthur J. Robson & Hillard S. Kaplan, 2003. "The Evolution of Human Life Expectancy and Intelligence in Hunter-Gatherer Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 150-169, March. [Downloadable!]
  13. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, 06. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Jacob L. Weisdorf, 2004. "From stagnation to growth: Revisiting three historical regimes," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 455-472, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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