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Late Informed Betting and the Favourite-Longshot Bias

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Author Info
Ottaviani, Marco
Sorensen, Peter Norman

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Abstract

According to the favorite-longshot bias observed in pari-mutuel betting, the final distribution of bets overestimates the winning chance of longshots. This Paper proposes an explanation of this bias based on late betting by small privately informed bettors. These bettors have an incentive to protect their private information and bet at the last minute, without knowing the bets simultaneously placed by the others. Once the distribution of bets is revealed, if bets are more informative than noisy, all bettors can recognize that the longshot is less likely to win than indicated by the distribution of bets.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4092.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4092

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Related research
Keywords: favourite-longshot bias; parimutuel betting; private information; timing;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  4. Colin F. Camerer, 1998. "Can Asset Markets Be Manipulated? A Field Experiment with Racetrack Betting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 457-482, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  7. Matsumura, Toshihiro, 1999. "Quantity-setting oligopoly with endogenous sequencing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 289-296, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Camerer, Colin, 1996. "Can Asset Markets be Manipulated? A Field Experiment with Racetrack Betting," Working Papers 983, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Charles R. Plott & Jorgen Wit & Winston C. Yang, 2003. "Parimutuel betting markets as information aggregation devices: experimental results," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 311-351, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frederic Koessler & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2004. "Parimutuel Betting under Asymmetric Information," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2003-34, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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