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G-7 Inflation Forecasts

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Canova, Fabio

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Abstract

This Paper compares the forecasting performance of some leading models of inflation for the cross section of G-7 countries. We show that bivariate and trivariate models suggested by economic theory or statistical analysis are hardly better than univariate models. Phillips curve specifications fit well into this class. Significant improvements in both the MSE of the forecasts and turning point prediction are obtained with time-varying coefficients models that exploit international interdependencies. The performance of the latter class of models is independent of the sample, while it is not the case for standard specifications.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3283.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3283

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Keywords: forecasting; inflation; markov chain monte carlo methods; panel var models;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Canova, Fabio, 1992. "An Alternative Approach to Modeling and Forecasting Seasonal Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(1), pages 97-108, January.
  12. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
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  16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999. "Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 1999. "Forecasting and Turning Point Predictions in a Bayesian Panel VAR Model," Economics Working Papers 443, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jens Larsen & Ben May & James Talbot, . "Estimating real interest rates for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 200, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lutz Kilian & Atsushi Inoue, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 214, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Peter Vlaar & Ard den Reijer, 2004. "Forecasting inflation: An art as well as a science!," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 148, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Peter Hoerdahl & Oreste Tristani, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 379, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2007. "Euro area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 9-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. A.H.J. den Reijer & P.J.G. Vlaar, 2003. "Forecasting Inflation in the Netherlands and the Euro Area," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 723, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. William T. Gavin & Athena T. Theodorou, 2004. "A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error," Working Papers 2003-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  11. Rapacciuolo, Ciro, 2003. "Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana
    [A simple model for the short term forecasting of Italian inflation]    ," MPRA Paper 7714, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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