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Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations

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Quah, Danny

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Abstract

This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a non-stationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables the study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the United States, the leading state (regardless of which it happens to be) contains strong predictive power for aggregate fluctuations. This effect is difficult to understand if only aggregate disturbances affect aggregate business cycles through aggregate propagation mechanisms. Instead, a better picture might be one of a `wave' of regional dynamics, rippling across the national economy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1236.

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Date of creation: Sep 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1236

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Related research
Keywords: Aggregate Disturbance; Business Cycle; Distribution Dynamics; Regional Fluctuation; Stochastic Kernel;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Cited by:
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  1. Christian Schluter, 1998. "Income Dynamics in Germany, the USA and the UK: Evidence from Panel Data," CASE Papers 08, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  2. George W. Hammond & Eric Thompson, 2002. "Mobility and Modality Trends in US State Personal Income," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 375-387, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andres Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2003. "Regional economic cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the periphery of the EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p189, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  4. Maria Luisa Mancusi, 2000. "Geographical Concentration and the Dynamics of Countries' Specialization in Technologies," CESPRI Working Papers 125, CESPRI, Centre for Research on Innovation and Internationalisation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Aug 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Sergio J. Rey, 2001. "Spatial Dependence in the Evolution of Regional Income Distributions," Urban/Regional 0105001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. James Proudman & Stephen Redding & Marco Bianchi, . "Is International Openness associated with faster economic growth?," Bank of England working papers 63, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  9. Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2007. "Regional housing market spillovers in the US - lessons from regional divergences in a common monetary policy setting," Working Paper Series 708, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 1998. "The cyclical behavior of regional per capita incomes in the postwar period," Working Papers 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  11. Maria Luisa Mancusi, 2000. "The Dynamics of Technology in Industrial Countries," CESPRI Working Papers 118, CESPRI, Centre for Research on Innovation and Internationalisation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Nov 2000. [Downloadable!]
  12. Stephen Redding, . "Persistence and Mobility in International TradeName: James Proudman," Bank of England working papers 64, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  13. Arribas, Iván & Pérez, Francisco & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2008. "On the Dynamics of Globalization," MPRA Paper 16007, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-10-29.

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