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Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4

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Author Info
Svensson, Lars E O

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Abstract

The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden between 1992 and 1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short, medium and long term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel's functional form.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1051.

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Date of creation: Oct 1994
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1051

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Related research
Keywords: Credibility; Inflation Expectations; Monetary Policy Indicators; Term Structure of Interest Rates;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  1. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Andrew N. Marder & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in The Western Hemisphere," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 400, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jan Marc Berk & Peter A.G. Vanbergeijk, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 11, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rafael Barros de Rezende, 2008. "Giving flexibility to the Nelso-Siegel class of term structure models," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211322560, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gann, Philipp & Laut, Amelie, 2008. "Einflussfaktoren auf den Credit Spread von Unternehmensanleihen," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 4231, University of Munich, Munich School of Management. [Downloadable!]
  5. Livio Stracca, . "Economics and Politics: Interest Rate Convergence in Europe and EMU," Discussion Papers in European Economics 99/6, Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [Downloadable!]
  6. Laurini, Márcio P. & Moura, Marcelo, 2007. "Constrained Smoothing Splines for the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_98, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
  7. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden," Working Paper Series 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jondeau, E. & Sedillot, F., 1998. "La prevision des taux longs français et allemands a partir d'un modele a anticipations rationnelles," Documents de Travail 55, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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