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Modelling health care expenditures

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Author Info
Roel van Elk ()
Esther Mot ()
Philip Hans Franses
Abstract

Health care expenditures in industrial countries have been growing rapidly over the past forty years. This rapid growth jeopardizes the sustainability of public budgets and causes an increasing interest in the determinants of health care expenditures. The first purpose of this paper is to give an up to date overview of the literature on health care expenditures. Secondly, this paper tries to contribute to the existing literature by investigating the impact of several factors on health care expenditures in an empirical analysis using an error-correction model. Additional to the ‘usual suspects’ for rising health care expenditures, we pay attention to a somewhat neglected driving factor, which is the increase in the relative price of health care compared to other goods and services. We find that the increasing price of health care helps to explain the increase in real health care expenditures. However, the use of health care in volume terms is negatively affected by the increasing price. This effect seems to be stronger in periods of cost containment policy. Consistent with most recent findings in the literature, we find that income and ageing are important drivers of health care expenditures.

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Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Discussion Papers with number 121.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:121

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Related research
Keywords: health care expenditures; error-correction model;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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  1. Pedro Pita Barros, 1998. "The black box of health care expenditure growth determinants," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(6), pages 533-544.
  2. Jennifer Roberts, 1999. "Sensitivity of elasticity estimates for OECD health care spending: analysis of a dynamic heterogeneous data field," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(5), pages 459-472.
  3. Gerdtham, Ulf-G & Jonsson, Bengt, 1991. "Price and Quantity in International Comparisons of Health Care Expenditure," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 1519-28, September.
  4. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2004. "The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending," NBER Working Papers 10737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Jonsson, Bengt, 2000. "International comparisons of health expenditure: Theory, data and econometric analysis," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 11-53 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Murthy, N R Vasudeva & Ukpolo, Victor, 1994. "Aggregate Health Care Expenditure in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 797-802, August.
  7. Clemente, Jesus & Marcuello, Carmen & Montanes, Antonio & Pueyo, Fernando, 2004. "On the international stability of health care expenditure functions: are government and private functions similar?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 589-613, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1997. "Pooled estimators vs. their heterogeneous counterparts in the context of dynamic demand for gasoline," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 303-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Donald G. Freeman, Ph.D., 2003. "Is health care a necessity or a luxury? Pooled estimates of income elasticity from US state-level data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 495-502, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jewell, Todd & Lee, Junsoo & Tieslau, Margie & Strazicich, Mark C., 2003. "Stationarity of health expenditures and GDP: evidence from panel unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 313-323, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Weisbrod, Burton A, 1991. "The Health Care Quadrilemma: An Essay on Technological Change, Insurance, Quality of Care, and Cost Containment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 523-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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