IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cor/louvco/1997059.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bayesian option pricing using asymmetric GARCH

Author

Listed:
  • BAUWENS, LUC

    (Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain la Neuve, Belgium)

  • LUBRANO, Michel

    (GREQAM, CNRS)

Abstract

This paper shows how one can compute option prices from a Bayesian inference viewpoint, using an econometric model for the dynamics of the return and of the volatility of the underlying asset. The proposed evaluation of an option is the predictive expectation of its payoff function. The predictive distribution of this function provides a natural metric with respect to which the predictive option price, or other option evaluations, can be gauged. The proposed method is compared to the Black and Scholes evaluation, in which a predictive mean volatility is plugged, but which does not provide a natural metric. The methods are illustrated using an asymmetric GARCH model with a data set on a stock index in Brussels. The persistence of the volatility process is linked to the prediction horizon and to the option maturity.

Suggested Citation

  • BAUWENS, LUC & LUBRANO, Michel, 1997. "Bayesian option pricing using asymmetric GARCH," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1997059, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:1997059
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sites.uclouvain.be/core/publications/coredp/coredp1997.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mateusz Pipień, 2005. "Dynamic Bayesian Inference in GARCH Processes with Skewed-t and Stable Conditional Distributions," FindEcon Chapters: Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-Making, in: Władysław Milo & Piotr Wdowiński (ed.), Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica nr 192/2005 - Issues in Modeling, Forecasting and Decision-Making in Financial Markets, edition 1, volume 127, chapter 15, pages 251-269, University of Lodz.
    2. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2008. "Robustness of the risk-return relationship in the U.S. stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 118-127, June.
    3. HAFNER, Christian & HERWARTZ, Helmut, 1998. "Volatility impulse response functions for multivariate GARCH models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1998047, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Jacek Osiewalski & Mateusz Pipień, 2004. "Bayesian Pricing of an European Call Option Using a GARCH Model with Asymmetries," FindEcon Chapters: Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-Making, in: Władysław Milo & Piotr Wdowiński (ed.), Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica nr 177/2004 - Forecasting and Decision-Making in Financial Markets, edition 1, volume 127, chapter 14, pages 219-238, University of Lodz.
    5. Abel Rodríguez & Enrique ter Horst & Samuel Malone, 2015. "Bayesian Inference for a Structural Credit Risk Model with Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 839-867.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian; GARCH; option pricing; simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:1997059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alain GILLIS (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/coreebe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.