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Creating a GTAP Baseline for 2014 to 2050 With Special Reference to Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Peter B. Dixon
  • Maureen T. Rimmer

Abstract

By 2020, the GTAP team had created 4 comparable GTAP databases, referring to the years 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014. They had also produced a preliminary 2017 database. The aim of the project reported in this paper was to use this time series of databases to derive and apply methods for: 1: estimating trends at a disaggregated level in industry technologies and consumer preferences; 2: creating baseline forecasts incorporating a wide range of macro, demographic and energy forecasts from specialist organizations together with disaggregated technology and preference trends; and 3: updating and checking GTAP databases, and establishing validation methods for assessing the performance of baseline forecasts. Towards these objectives, we produced several interim reports and 3 final reports. This paper explains our methods and reviews the project findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2024. "Creating a GTAP Baseline for 2014 to 2050 With Special Reference to Canada," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-345, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-345
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GTAP data; Estimating technology trends; Baseline forecasting; Updating and validation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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