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Automation of the labor force and informality with focus on the Colombian case

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  • Fernández, Cristina

    (FEDESARROLLO)

  • Suecún, Cecilia

    (FEDESARROLLO)

Abstract

This study explores the potential impact of automation on jobs in Colombia, with a specific focus on the informal economy. To do this, we apply Frey and Osborne (2017) and IADB (2019) automation probabilities and Mihaylov and Tijdens (2019) routine task intensities to the Colombian context. We estimate that machines could replace around 57% of Colombian jobs within the next 10 to 20 years. We find that the percentage of high-risk occupations for informal workers is slightly higher than for formal workers, but the risk is slightly lower for workers in informal firms compared to those in formal firms. The results also highlight divergent findings depending on the methodology used, with some indicating that informal workers hold more automatable jobs, while others suggest the opposite. Younger workers and women are identified as groups facing a higher risk of automation, emphasizing the need for targeted attention to these demographics in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández, Cristina & Suecún, Cecilia, 2023. "Automation of the labor force and informality with focus on the Colombian case," Informes de Investigación 21023, Fedesarrollo.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000124:021023
    Note: Financiador Project Untangled, European Union
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Automation; Technological Change; Occupational Choice Routine and non-Routine Tasks; Job Loss;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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