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Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal

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Author Info
Ignacio Lozano Espitia ()
Karen Rodríguez
Abstract

The focus of this paper is on the short-term macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia in a structural vector autoregression context. Government spending shocks are found to have positive and significant effects on output, private consumption, employment, prices and short-term interest rates. The cumulative output multiplier fluctuates between 1.12 and 1.19 from the first to third year after the spending innovation. Shocks to direct taxation seem to be less efficient, because they mainly affect private investment, whereas shocks to indirect taxation do not seem to affect real activities significantly. From a policy perspective, our results support the smoothing role of fiscal policy on output fluctuations, which implies its capacity to restore real activity effectively in critical times like the ones currently being forecast. From a theoretical standpoint, the results are consistent with real business cycle and Keynesian models of both traditional partial equilibrium and new general equilibrium types. Keywords:

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 005386.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 02 Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:005386

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  1. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jorge E. Restrepo & Hernán Rincón, 2006. "Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks In Chile And Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002800, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2007. "Efecto de los cambios en el gasto y en los ingresos del gobierno sobre el PIB: Una caracterización empírica para Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004392, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Roberto Perotti, 2007. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Pappa, Evi, 2005. "New-Keynesian or RBC Transmission? The Effects of Fiscal Shocks in Labour Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rodrigo A. Cerda & Hermann González & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2006. "Is fiscal policy effective? Evidence for an emerging economy: Chile 1833--2000," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 575-580, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, 2007. "Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002730, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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