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Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: an Identification Robust Econometric Analysis

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Author Info
Jean-Marie Dufour ()
Lynda Khalaf
Maral Kichian

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Abstract

In this paper, we use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali and Gertler’s (1999) specification, on both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rationalexpectations assumption, and a modification to the latter which consists in using survey data on inflation expectations. The results based on these two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behavior, and (ii) the frequency of price adjustments. Overall, we find that there is some support for the hybrid NKPC for the U.S., whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Our findings underscore the need for employing identificationrobust inference methods in the estimation of expectations-based dynamic macroeconomic relations.

Dans cet article, nous employons des méthodes robustes aux problèmes d’identification afin d’évaluer la valeur empirique d’une nouvelle équation de courbe de Phillips keynésienne (NKPC). Nous concentrons notre analyse sur la spécification de Gali et Gertler (1999), en considérant des données américaines et canadiennes. Nous étudions deux variantes du modèle : une première fondée sur une hypothèse d’attentes rationnelles et une seconde où les attentes sont mesurées à partir de données d’enquête. Les résultats basés sur ces deux spécifications diffèrent de manière notable sur plusieurs points : (i) les problèmes liés à l’identification, (ii) les comportements rétrospectifs, (iii) la fréquence des ajustements. En fin de compte, nos résultats sont compatibles dans une faible mesure avec un modèle NKPC hybride, tandis que le modèle ne semble pas compatible avec les données canadiennes. Nos résultats soulignent l’importance d’utiliser des méthodes robustes à l’identification dans l’analyse empirique de relations macroéconomiques où interviennent des attentes.

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Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2005s-30.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2005s-30

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Keywords: identification robust inference inflation dynamics macroeconomics New Keynesian Phillips Curve optimal instruments weak instruments dynamique de l’inflation inférence robuste à l’identification instruments faibles instruments optimaux macroéconomie nouvelle courbe de Phillips keynésienne

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jean Imbs & Eric Jondeau & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Aggregating Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 785, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Charlotta Groth & Hashmat Khan, . "Investment adjustment costs: evidence from UK and US industries," Bank of England working papers 332, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sandeep Mazumder, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Cyclicality of Marginal Cost," Economics Working Paper Archive 545, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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