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Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility

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John M. Maheu
Thomas H. McCurdy ()

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Abstract

This paper investigates nonlinear features of FX volatility dynamics using estimates of daily volatility based on the sum of intraday squared returns. Measurement errors associated with using realized volatility to measure ex post latent volatility imply that standard time series models of the conditional variance become variants of an ARMAX model. We explore nonlinear departures from these linear specifications using a doubly stochastic process under duration-dependent mixing. This process can capture large abrupt changes in the level of volatility, time varying persistence, and time-varying variance of volatility. The results have implications for forecast precision, hedging, and pricing of derivatives.

Dans cet article, nous étudions les caractéristiques nonlinéaires de la dynamique de la volatilité des taux de change à l'aide d'estimations de la volatilité quotidienne basées sur la somme du carré des rendements intraquotidiens. Les erreurs de mesure commises en utilisant la volatilité réalisée pour mesurer la volatilité latente ex post font en sorte que les modèles standards de séries chronologiques de la variance conditionnelle deviennent des variantes d'un modèle ARMAX. Nous explorons des alternatives nonlinéaires à ces spécifications linéaires en utilisant un processus doublement stochastique, avec mixage dépendant de la durée. Ce processus peut capter des changements importants et abrupts dans le niveau de la volatilité, de même qu'une persistence et une variance de la volatilité variant dans le temps. Nos résultats influent sur la précision des prévisions, la couverture et l'évaluation des produits dérivés.

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Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2001s-42.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2001s-42

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Keywords: High-frequency data realized volatility semi-Marko Données à haute fréquence volatilité réalisée demi-Markov

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Realised power variation and stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W18, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  2. John Galbraith & Victoria Zinde-Walsh, 2001. "Properties of Estimates of Daily GARCH Parameters Basaed on Intra-Day Observations," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-15, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Nour Meddahi, 2001. "A Theoretical Comparison Between Integrated andRealized Volatilities / A Theoretical Comparison Between Integrated and Realized Volatilities," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-71, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jeannette H.C. Woerner, 2002. "Variational Sums and Power Variation: a unifying approach to model selection and estimation in semimartingale models," OFRC Working Papers Series 2002mf05, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, 2001. "Incentives in Common Agency," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-66, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2004. "Information flow between volatilities across time scales," MPRA Paper 10355, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2008. "Forecasting Realized Volatility: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Papers tecipa-313, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jeannette H.C. Woerner, 2003. "Estimation of Integrated Volatility in Stochastic Volatility Models," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003mf05, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  9. Suhejla Hoiti & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Michael McAleer & Daniel Slottje, 2005. "Measuring the Volatility in U.S. Treasury Benchmarks and Debt Instruments," DEA Working Papers 14, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada. [Downloadable!]
  10. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2008. "Do high-frequency measures of volatility improve forecasts of return distributions?," Working Papers tecipa-324, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "ARMA Representation of Integrated and Realized Variances," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-93, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  12. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "A theoretical comparison between integrated and realized volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 479-508. [Downloadable!]
  13. Martin Martens & Dick van Dijk & Michiel de Pooter, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting S&P 500 Volatility: Long Memory, Structural Breaks and Nonlinearity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-067/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  14. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "Modeling foreign exchange rates with jumps," Working Papers tecipa-279, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2007. "Are there Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Working Papers tecipa-304, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Julie Doonan & Paul Lanoie & Benoit Laplante, 2002. "Environmental Performance of Canadian Pulp and Paper Plants: Why Some Do Well and Others Do Not ?," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-24, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  17. Richard Lajeunesse & Paul Lanoie & Michel Patry, 2001. "Environmental Regulation and Productivity: New Findings on the Porter Analysis," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-53, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  18. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2000. "Econometric analysis of realised volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W4, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 05 Jul 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Lars Forsberg & Tim Bollerslev, 2002. "Bridging the gap between the distribution of realized (ECU) volatility and ARCH modelling (of the Euro): the GARCH-NIG model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 535-548. [Downloadable!]
  20. Ngo Van Long & Koji Shimomura, 2002. "Relative Wealth, Status Seeking, and Catching Up," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-09, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Markku Lanne, 2006. "A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/3, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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