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Terrorism Networks and Trade: Does the Neighor Hurt?

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  • José de Sousa
  • Daniel Mirza
  • Thierry Verdier

Abstract

We study the impact of transnational terrorism diffusion on security and trade. We set a simple theoretical model predicting that the closer a country to a source of terrorism, the higher the negative spillovers on its trade. The idea is that security measures, which impede trade, are directed both against the source country of terror and its neighbor countries where terrorism may diffuse. In contrast, we demonstrate that countries located far from terror could benefit from an increase in security by trading more. Taken to the test, we empirically document these predictions. We find (1) a direct negative impact of transnational terrorism on trade; (2) an indirect negative impact emanating from terrorism of neighbor countries; and (3) that trade is increasing with remoteness to terror. These results are robust to various definitions of the neighboring relationships among countries.

Suggested Citation

  • José de Sousa & Daniel Mirza & Thierry Verdier, 2010. "Terrorism Networks and Trade: Does the Neighor Hurt?," Working Papers 2010-04, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Mirza & Thierry Verdier, 2014. "Are Lives a Substitute for Livelihoods? Terrorism, Security, and US Bilateral Imports," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 58(6), pages 943-975, September.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
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    4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    5. Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2008. "International trade, security and transnational terrorism: Theory and a survey of empirics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 179-194, June.
    6. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, 2002. "Insecurity And The Pattern Of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 342-352, May.
    7. James E. Anderson & Yoto V. Yotov, 2010. "The Changing Incidence of Geography," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2157-2186, December.
    8. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
    9. Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John T. & Cauley, Jon, 1983. "A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 36-54, March.
    10. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, 1997. "Trade and Security,I: Anarchy," NBER Working Papers 6223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Egger & Martin Gassebner, 2015. "International terrorism as a trade impediment?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 42-62.
    2. Pham, Cong S. & Doucouliagos, Chris, 2017. "An Injury to One Is an Injury to All: Terrorism's Spillover Effects on Bilateral Trade," IZA Discussion Papers 10859, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Nathalie Colombier & David Masclet & Daniel Mirza & Claude Montmarquette, 2011. "Global Security Policies against Terrorism and the Free Riding Problem: An Experimental Approach," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 13(5), pages 755-790, October.
    4. Randall K. Filer & Dragana Stanišić, 2016. "The Effect of Terrorist Incidents on Capital Flows," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 502-513, May.
    5. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed, 2013. "Trade and thy neighbor's war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-195.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism; Trade; Security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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