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The Hidden Toll of the Pandemic: Excess Mortality in non-COVID-19 Hospital Patients

Author

Listed:
  • Fetzer, Thiemo

    (University of Warwick & University of Bonn & CEPR & ECONtribute)

  • Rauh, Christopher

    (University of Cambridge, PRIO, CEPR, IZA & HCEO)

  • Schreiner, Clara

    (Nuffield College, University of Oxford.)

Abstract

Seasonal infectious diseases can cause demand and supply pressures that reduce the ability of healthcare systems to provide high-quality care. This may generate negative spillover effects on the health outcomes of patients seeking medical help for unrelated reasons. Separating these indirect burdens from the direct consequences for infected patients is usually impossible because of a lack of suitable data and an absence of population testing. However, this paper finds robust empirical evidence of excess mortality among non-COVID-19 patients in an integrated public healthcare system: the English NHS. Analysing the forecast error in the NHS’ model for predicted mortality, we find at least one additional excess death among patients who sought medical help for reasons unrelated to COVID-19 for every 42 COVID-19-related deaths in the population. We identify COVID-19 pressures as a key driver of non-COVID-19 excess mortality in NHS hospitals during the pandemic, and characterise the hospital populations and medical conditions that are disproportionately affected. Our findings have substantive relevance in shaping our understanding of the wider burden of COVID-19, and other seasonal diseases more generally, and can contribute to debates on optimal public health policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Fetzer, Thiemo & Rauh, Christopher & Schreiner, Clara, 2024. "The Hidden Toll of the Pandemic: Excess Mortality in non-COVID-19 Hospital Patients," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 705, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:705
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp705.2024.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124130, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    2. Fetzer, T. & Rauh, C., 2022. "Pandemic pressures and public health care: evidence from England," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2204, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. David Adam, 2022. "The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts," Nature, Nature, vol. 601(7893), pages 312-315, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Externalities; Spillovers; COVID-19; Public Health; Seasonal Diseases; Excess Mortality; Prediction Error JEL Classification: I1; I18;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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