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The Economic Effects of International Sanctions: An Event Study

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  • Jerg Gutmann
  • Matthias Neuenkirch
  • Florian Neumeier

Abstract

Although international sanctions are a widely used instrument of coercion, their economic effects are still not fully understood. This study uses a novel dataset and an event study approach to evaluate the economic consequences of international sanctions, thereby accounting for pre-treatment dynamics in countries subject to sanctions. Our analysis focuses on the effects of sanctions on GDP growths as well as various transmission channels through which sanctions affect economic activity. We document a significant negative effect of international sanctions on GDP growth and its components (consumption, investment, and government expenditures) as well as on trade and foreign direct investment. Additional panel difference-in-differences estimations reveal that this detrimental effect is driven by financial sanctions and US unilateral sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2021. "The Economic Effects of International Sanctions: An Event Study," CESifo Working Paper Series 9007, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9007
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Rodr'iguez, 2022. "Sanctions and Imports of Essential Goods: A Closer Look at the Equipo Anova (2021) Results," Papers 2212.09904, arXiv.org.
    2. Thieß Petersen & Thomas Schwab, 2022. "Handelssanktionen — Wirkungen und Nebenwirkungen [Trade Sanctions — Effects and Side Effects]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 354-360, May.
    3. Rodriguez, Francisco, 2022. "Sanctions and Imports of Essential Goods; A Closer Look at the Equipo Anova (2021) Results," MPRA Paper 115714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Buklemishev, O., 2022. "Financial sanctions and future of globalization," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 207-212.
    5. Rodriguez, Francisco, 2023. "Estimating causal effects of sanctions impacts: what role for country-level studies?," MPRA Paper 117423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Francisco Rodr'iguez, 2023. "Estimating causal effects of sanctions impacts: what role for country-level studies?," Papers 2305.14605, arXiv.org.
    7. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova, 2023. "The Price of War: Macroeconomic and Cross-Sectional Effects of Sanctions on Russia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp756, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; event study; international sanctions; transmission channels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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