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The Incidence of VAT Evasion

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  • Zareh Asatryan
  • David Gomtsyan

Abstract

Who benefits from the evasion of value added taxes (VAT)? Using a reform that enforced VAT on previously non-compliant large retailers in Armenia, we estimate a one-third passthrough of the tax burden on prices. This suggests that pre-enforcement evasion rents were broadly shared with consumers through lower prices. Our theoretical and empirical results explain this low passthrough rate by the supply-chain effects and second-order compliance responses of firms to VAT enforcement. Our distributional analysis shows that households at the bottom of the income distribution benefit more from the rents of evasion.

Suggested Citation

  • Zareh Asatryan & David Gomtsyan, 2020. "The Incidence of VAT Evasion," CESifo Working Paper Series 8666, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8666
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    Cited by:

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    2. Buettner, Thiess & Madzharova, Boryana & Zaddach, Orlando, 2023. "Income tax credits for consumer services: A tool for tackling VAT evasion?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    3. Nicolas Gavoille & Anna Zasova, 2021. "Minimum wage spike and income underreporting: a back-of-the-envelope-wage analysis," SSE Riga/BICEPS Research Papers 7, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
    4. Asatryan, Zareh & Joulfaian, David, 2022. "Taxes and Business Philanthropy in Armenia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 914-930.
    5. Andrew Feltenstein & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Biplab Datta & Sohani Fatehin, 2022. "A general equilibrium model of Value Added Tax evasion: an application to Pakistan," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 537-556, July.
    6. Athiphat Muthitacharoen & Wonma Wanichthaworn & Trongwut Burong, 2021. "VAT threshold and small business behavior: evidence from Thai tax returns," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1242-1275, October.
    7. Reaños, Miguel Tovar & De Bruin, Kelly & Meier, David & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2022. "Economic and Distributional Impacts of turning the Value-Added Tax into a Carbon Tax," Papers WP739, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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    Keywords

    value added tax; incidence; passthrough; evasion; enforcement; distributional effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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